Construction of diagnostic and prognostic models based on gene signatures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma by machine learning methods.

Background: Diagnostic models based on gene signatures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) were constructed by random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso)-Cox regression was used to select and build prognostic models based on gene signatures. This study contributes to the early diagnosis and treatment, prognosis, and molecular mechanisms associated with NPC. Methods: Two gene expression datasets were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and differentially expressed genes (DEGs) associated with NPC were identified by gene expression differential analysis. Subsequently, significant DEGs were identified by a RF algorithm. ANN were used to construct a diagnostic model for NPC. The performance of the diagnostic model was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) values using a validation set. Lasso-Cox regression examined gene signatures associated with prognosis. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) prediction models were constructed and validated from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database. Results: A total of 582 DEGs associated with NPC were identified, and 14 significant genes were identified by the RF algorithm. A diagnostic model for NPC was successfully constructed using ANN, and the validity of the model was confirmed on the training set AUC =0.947 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.911-0.969] and the validation set AUC =0.864 (95% CI: 0.828-0.901). The 24-gene signatures associated with prognosis were identified by Lasso-Cox regression, and prediction models for OS and DFS of NPC were constructed on the training set. Finally, the ability of the model was validated on the validation set. Conclusions: Several potential gene signatures associated with NPC were identified, and a high-performance predictive model for early diagnosis of NPC and a prognostic prediction model with robust performance were successfully developed. The results of this study provide valuable references for early diagnosis, screening, treatment and molecular mechanism research of NPC in the future.