Exploring the intersection between country context and priority setting to prevent maternal mortality: A multi-methods study comparing expected vs observed priorities in five countries to validate the obstetric transition model.

Background: The obstetric transition model suggests that, as countries economically develop, the primary causes of maternal mortality change. Countries are assigned to one of five stages based on their maternal mortality ratio to identify priorities for reducing maternal deaths based on predominant determinants of mortality at each stage. We aim to validate the obstetric transition model using data from six diverse low- and middle-income countries representing self-identified priorities for improving maternal health and measurement compiled in a multi-stakeholder process. Methods: We used multiple data sources from Bangladesh, Cote d'Ivoire, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and Pakistan, which included secondary data on country context and primary data derived from two sources: the content of multi-stakeholder meetings, called National Dialogues, which were organised around the 11 key themes identified in the World Health Organization's "Strategies toward ending preventable maternal mortality" (EPMM) and follow-up key informant interviews conducted in five of the seven countries. We conducted the analysis in four phases examining, the country's contextual profile, mapping the key themes and indicators to the model, exploring stakeholder prioritisation, and examining reasons for divergence from the model. Results: Our results suggest that the stages of the obstetric transition generally align with the social, epidemiological, and health systems characteristics that the model predicts to be associated with countries at each stage, with some deviation related to health system deficiencies and barriers to access. Stakeholder priorities in maternal health generally align with those predicted by the model. Equity and women's rights emerged as a priority throughout all stages, not only within countries that are more advanced in the transition, as predicted by the model. Deviations between the model's predictions and country-level prioritisation were often explained by context-specific challenges. Conclusions: This study is one of the first to validate the obstetric transition model using real data. Our findings support the validity of the obstetric transition model as a useful guide to aid decisionmakers in prioritising attention towards addressing maternal mortality. Country context, including equity, remains important to further inform priority-setting.