Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37294754›Full record

ArticleScience advances2023

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Ruth McCabe, Charles Whittaker, Richard J Sheppard, Nada Abdelmagid, Aljaile Ahmed, Israa Zain Alabdeen, Nicholas F Brazeau, Abd Elhameed Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abdulla Salem Bin-Ghouth, Arran Hamlet and 20 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The role of mortality surveillance in pandemic preparedness and response.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

30 authors.

Ruth McCabeDepartment of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6368-9103
Charles WhittakerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5003-2575
Richard J SheppardMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nada AbdelmagidDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Aljaile AhmedSudan COVID-19 Research Group, Khartoum, Sudan.
Israa Zain AlabdeenSudan Youth Peer Education Network, Khartoum, Sudan.
Nicholas F BrazeauMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3976-7965
Abd Elhameed Ahmed Abd ElhameedSudan COVID-19 Research Group, Khartoum, Sudan.ORCID 0000-0001-6866-0249
Abdulla Salem Bin-GhouthDepartment of Community Medicine, Hadhramout University, Mukalla, Yemen.
Arran HamletMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0871-0640
Rahaf AbuKouraDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Gregory BarnsleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7972-0737
James A HayCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1998-1844
Mervat AlhaffarDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3737-8790
Emilie Koum BessonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2028-5176
Semira Mitiku SajeSchool of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.ORCID 0000-0002-5669-8845
Binyam Girma SisaySchool of Exercise and Nutrition Science, Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition (IPAN), Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-9310-8170
Seifu Hagos GebreyesusSchool of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Adane Petros SikamoSchool of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Aschalew WorkuSchool of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Yakob Seman AhmedEthiopian Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Damen Haile MariamSchool of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Mitike Molla SisaySchool of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.ORCID 0000-0002-3697-4929
Francesco ChecchiDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9030-5382
Maysoon DahabDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Bilal Shikur EndrisSchool of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Azra C GhaniMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0007-4910
Patrick G T WalkerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9596-9628
Christl A DonnellyDepartment of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0195-2463
Oliver J WatsonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2374-0741

Funding

CGH CDC HHS U01 GH002319
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Indexed as

COVID-19EthiopiaHumansPandemicsSurveys and Questionnaires

Identifiers

PMID37294754
PMCPMC10256151

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.