Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37293373›Full record

ArticleArthroplasty today2023

Projections and Epidemiology of Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States to 2040-2060.

Ittai Shichman, Neil Askew, Akram Habibi, Leo Nherera, William Macaulay, Thorsten Seyler, Ran Schwarzkopf

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Arthroplasty today, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 69 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
69citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

69 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Total femur replacement in revision arthroplasty for non-oncologic patients: a systematic review.European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2025
    Pooled it
  3. Review
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  7. Review
  8. How long should we keep clinical isolates involved in bone and joint infections in microbiology laboratories?European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026
    Review
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9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ittai ShichmanDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.
Neil AskewHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, Global Market Access, Smith & Nephew, Fort Worth, TX, USA.
Akram HabibiDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.
Leo NhereraHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, Global Market Access, Smith & Nephew, Fort Worth, TX, USA.
William MacaulayDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.
Thorsten SeylerDuke University Medical Center, Department of Orthopaedics, Durham, NC, USA.
Ran SchwarzkopfDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: National projections of future joint arthroplasties are useful in understanding the changing burden of surgery and related outcomes on the health system. The aim of this study is to update the literature by producing Medicare projections for revision total joint arthroplasty procedures from 2040 through 2060. Methods: The study uses 2000-2019 data from the CMS Medicare Part-B National Summary and combines procedure counts using CPT codes for revision total joint arthroplasty procedures. In 2019, revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) procedures totaled 53,217 and 30,541, respectively, forming a baseline from which we generated point forecasts between 2020 and 2060 and 95% forecast intervals (FI). Results: On average, the model projects an annual growth rate of 1.77% for rTHAs and 4.67% for rTKAs. By 2040, rTHAs were projected to be 43,514 (95% FI = 37,429-50,589) and rTKAs were projected to be 115,147 (95% FI = 105,640-125,510). By 2060, rTHAs was projected to be 61,764 (95% FI = 49,927-76,408) and rTKAs were projected to be 286,740 (95% FI = 253,882-323,852). Conclusions: Based on 2019 total volume counts, the log-linear exponential model forecasts an increase in rTHA procedures of 42% by 2040 and 101% by 2060. Similarly, the estimated increase for rTKA is projected to be 149% by 2040 and 520% by 2060. An accurate projection of future revision procedure demands is important to understand future healthcare utilization and surgeon demand. This finding is only applicable to the Medicare population and demands further analysis for other population groups.

Indexed as

CMS Medicare Part-BProjectionsRevision total joint arthroplastyTotal hip arthroplastyTotal knee arthroplasty

Identifiers

PMID37293373
PMCPMC10244911

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.