Estimating transformations for evaluating diagnostic tests with covariate adjustment.

Receiver operating characteristic analysis is one of the most popular approaches for evaluating and comparing the accuracy of medical diagnostic tests. Although various methodologies have been developed for estimating receiver operating characteristic curves and their associated summary indices, there is no consensus on a single framework that can provide consistent statistical inference while handling the complexities associated with medical data. Such complexities might include non-normal data, covariates that influence the diagnostic potential of a test, ordinal biomarkers or censored data due to instrument detection limits. We propose a regression model for the transformed test results which exploits the invariance of receiver operating characteristic curves to monotonic transformations and accommodates these features. Simulation studies show that the estimates based on transformation models are unbiased and yield coverage at nominal levels. The methodology is applied to a cross-sectional study of metabolic syndrome where we investigate the covariate-specific performance of weight-to-height ratio as a non-invasive diagnostic test. Software implementations for all the methods described in the article are provided in the tram add-on package to the R system for statistical computing and graphics.