Patients with poor early clinical outcomes after anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty have sustained poor performance at 2 years from surgery.

purposeWe sought to define the risk of persistent shoulder dysfunction after anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty (aTSA) beyond the early postoperative period and identify risk factors for persistent poor performance.

methodsWe retrospectively identified 144 primary aTSAs performed for primary osteoarthritis with early poor performance and 2-year minimum follow-up. Early poor performance was defined as a postoperative ASES score below the 20th percentile at 3- or 6-months (62 and 72 points, respectively). Persistent poor performance at 2 years was defined as failing to achieve the patient acceptable symptomatic state (PASS) [ASES = 81.7 points].

resultsAt 2-year follow-up, 51% (n = 74) of patients with early poor performance at either 3- or 6-month follow-up had persistent poor performance. There was no difference in the rate of persistent poor performance if patients were poor performers at the 3-, 6-month follow-up, or both (50% vs. 49% vs. 56%, P = .795). Of aTSAs achieving the PASS at 2-year follow-up, a greater proportion exceeded the minimal clinically important differences (MCID) [Forward elevation, external rotation, and all outcome scores] and substantial clinical benefit (SCB) [external rotation and all outcome scores] compared to persistent poor performers. However, over half of persistent poor performers still exceeded the MCID for all outcome measures (56-85%). Independent predictors of persistent poor performance were hypertension (2.61 [1.01-6.72], P = .044) and diabetes (5.14 [1.00-26.4], P = .039).

conclusionOver half of aTSAs with an ASES score < 20th percentile at early follow-up had continued poor shoulder function at 2-years postoperatively. Persistent poor performance was best projected by preoperative hypertension and diabetes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III; Retrospective Cohort Comparison using Large Database; Treatment Study.