ArticleNature communications2023
Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- How the COVID-19 pandemic affected routine child vaccination: an integrative review.Einstein (Sao Paulo, Brazil) · 2025Pooled it
- COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: Umbrella Review of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Pooled it
- Risk of COVID-19 death for people with a pre-existing cancer diagnosis prior to COVID-19-vaccination: A systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of cancer · 2024Pooled it
- Neuraminidase-inhibiting antibodies boosted by H1N1pdm infection cross-react differently with H5N1 of clades 2.3.4.4b and 2.3.2.1a.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Objectionable Solidarity and Fractures in the Ethics of Global Health Solidarity : The Curse of COVID 19 Vaccine Donations Gone Awry.Journal of bioethical inquiry · 2026Article
- Economic factors promoting vaccine nationalism in the face of viral evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- COVID-19 Is Airborne AIDS: Provocative Oversimplification, Emerging Science, or Something in Between?AJPM focus · 2026Review
- Article
- Global disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage associated with trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Demanding solidarity, not salvation: sex work and global health.BMJ global health · 2026Review
- Global burden of influenza lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years from 1990 to 2021.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Equitable access to the COVID-19 vaccines in Africa (ECOVA) findings from a qualitative enquiry in Zimbabwe.Frontiers in health services · 2026Article
- Building reparative futures demands a reckoning with the crisis form of global health.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Competing Theories on Global and Regional Vaccine Inequities: A Scoping Literature Review Within the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Vaccines · 2025Review
- COVID-19 vaccine knowledge and acceptance among the Libyan population: A cross-sectional study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Social inequalities in vaccine coverage and their effects on epidemic spreading.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Review
- A history-dependent approach for accurate initial condition estimation in epidemic models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Estimating Population Immunity and Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in Washington State and Oregon.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected from all WHO regions. We investigate and quantify the potential effects of higher or earlier doses availability. In doing so, we focus on the crucial initial months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: [54-94%]) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider scenarios where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries. Even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: [6-50%]) could have been averted. In the absence of the availability of high-income countries, the model suggests that additional non-pharmaceutical interventions inducing a considerable relative decrease of transmissibility (min-max range: [15-70%]) would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines. Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccine inequities and underscore the need for intensified global efforts devoted to provide faster access to vaccine programs in low and lower-middle-income countries.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.