Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37274551›Full record

ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2023

The impact of immigration on hepatitis B burden in the United States: a modelling study.

Devin Razavi-Shearer, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Calvin Q Pan, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, Sarah Blach, Chris Estes, Ellen Mooneyhan, Homie Razavi

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.6field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Devin Razavi-ShearerCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Ivane GamkrelidzeCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Calvin Q PanDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, New York University (NYU) Langone Medical Center, NYU School of Medicine, New York, USA 132-21 Forty First Ave, Flushing, NY 11355, USA.
Kathryn Razavi-ShearerCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Sarah BlachCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Chris EstesCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Ellen MooneyhanCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Homie RazaviCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, 1120 W South Boulder Rd, Suite 102, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Center for Disease Analysis · USNYU Langone Health · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 2030. However, the HBV prevalence in Western countries, where the historical prevalence is low and highly impacted by immigration trends, remains uncertain making planning difficult. We aimed to develop a more accurate estimate of HBV prevalence and identify key immigrant populations that need to be screened, vaccinated, and treated to achieve the elimination targets. Methods: US immigration data from 1900 forward and country-specific modeled prevalence by age and sex were used to estimate immigrated HBV infections entering the US, new infections in the US, mortality (all-cause and liver-related), and disease burden through 2030. Findings: Using a dynamic Markov model, we estimated 1.8 million (95% uncertainty interval: 1.3-2.6 million) HBV infections in 2020 in all ages, higher than the NHANES national serosurvey. Infections between ages 30-74 accounted for 82% of all cases. Furthermore, HBV infections were concentrated among immigrants. New decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver related deaths are expected to increase by 20%, 31% and 25% respectively from 2019 to 2030 at current diagnosis and treatment rate. Interpretation: National serosurveys can underestimate total infections due to under-sampling in immigrant populations. To meet the WHO elimination targets, culturally appropriate screening and linkage to care programs in the immigrant populations are needed in the US. In their absence, there will be significant increases in the burden of HBV and the US will fail to meet the elimination targets by 2030. Funding: This analysis was funded by a research grant from Gilead Sciences (IN-US-988-5786) and made possible by grants from John C Martin Foundation (2019-G024), ZeShan Foundation (2021-0101-1-CDA-HEP-10), and EndHep2030 who supported country analyses.

Indexed as

CirrhosisDiagnosisHBVHepatitis B virusImmigrationLiver cancerModellingMortalityPrevalenceUnited StatesWestern countries

Identifiers

PMID37274551
PMCPMC10239007
OpenAlexW4378554306

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.