Time series analysis of survival and oviposition cycle duration of

Background: Survival and gonotrophic cycle duration are important determinants of the vectorial capacity of malaria vectors but there are a limited number of approaches to estimate these quantities from field data. Time-series of observations of mosquitoes at different stages in the life-cycle are under-used. Methods: Results: Data were available from 7,396, 6,041 and 1,527 trap-nights for exit-traps, light-traps and resting collections respectively. Estimates of cycle duration varied considerably between the different methods. The estimated proportion of female mosquitoes surviving each day of 0.740 (95% credible interval [0.650-0.815]) derived from light-trap data was much lower than the estimated daily survival of male mosquitoes from the model fitted to exit-trap data (0.881, 95% credible interval [0.747-0.987]). There was no tendency for the oviposition cycle to become shorter at higher temperature while the odds of survival of females through the cycle was estimated to be multiplied by 1.021 for every degree of mean weekly temperature increase (95% credible interval [0.991-1.051]). There was negligible temperature dependence and little inter-annual variation in male survival. Discussion: The time-series approach fitted to the exit-traps suggests that male