Atlas-based finite element analyses with simpler constitutive models predict personalized progression of knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

New technologies are required to support a radical shift towards preventive healthcare. Here we focus on evaluating the possibility of finite element (FE) analysis-aided prevention of knee osteoarthritis (OA), a disease that affects 100 million citizens in the US and EU and this number is estimated to increase drastically. Current clinical methods to diagnose or predict joint health status relies on symptoms and tissue failures obtained from clinical imaging. In a joint with no detectable injuries, the diagnosis of the future health of the knee can be assumed to be very subjective. Quantitative approaches are therefore needed to assess the personalized risk for the onset and development of knee OA. FE analysis utilizing an atlas-based modeling approach has shown a preliminary capability for simulating subject-specific cartilage mechanical responses. However, it has been verified with a very limited subject number. Thus, the aim of this study is to verify the real capability of the atlas-based approach to simulate cartilage degeneration utilizing different material descriptions for cartilage. A fibril reinforced poroviscoelastic (FRPVE) material formulation was considered as state-of-the-art material behavior, since it has been preliminary validated against real clinical follow-up data. Simulated mechanical tissue responses and predicted cartilage degenerations within knee joint with FRPVE material were compared against simpler constitutive models for cartilage. The capability of the atlas-based modeling to offer a feasible approach with quantitative evaluation for the risk for the OA development (healthy vs osteoarthritic knee, p < 0.01, AUC ~ 0.7) was verified with 214 knees. Furthermore, the results suggest that accuracy for simulation of cartilage degeneration with simpler material models is similar to models using FPRVE materials if the material parameters are chosen properly.