ArticleScientific reports2023
The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in 27 countries.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2025Review
- Direct and indirect burden of COVID-19 on mortality in Spain (2020 to 2022).BMC public health · 2025Article
- Restoring life expectancy in low-income countries: the combined impact of COVID-19, health expenditure, GDP, and child mortality.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Life Expectancy in South Korea, 2019-2022.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Mortality from major causes and lifestyles by proportions of public assistance recipients among 47 prefectures in Japan: Ecological panel data analysis from 1999 to 2016.Preventive medicine reports · 2024Article
- Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Statistical modeling and estimating number of healthy life years lost and healthy life expectancy in India, 2000-2019.Aging medicine (Milton (N.S.W)) · 2023Article
- Implementing PCR testing in general practice-a qualitative study using normalization process theory.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Unique characteristics of end-of-life hospitalizations in Parkinson disease.Frontiers in aging neuroscience · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The expected year-on-year intrinsic mortality variations/changes are largely overlooked in the existing research when estimating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality patterns. To fill this gap, this study provides a new assessment of the loss of life expectancy caused by COVID-19 in 27 countries considering both the actual and the expected changes in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020. Life expectancy in 2020 and the expected life expectancy in the absence of COVID-19 are estimated using the Lee-Carter model and data primarily from the Human Mortality Database. The results show that life expectancy in 21 of the 27 countries was expected to increase in 2020 had COVID-19 not occurred. By considering the expected mortality changes between 2019 and 2020, the study shows that, on average, the loss of life expectancy among the 27 countries in 2020 amounted to 1.33 year (95% CI 1.29-1.37) at age 15 and 0.91 years (95% CI 0.88-0.94) at age 65. Our results suggest that if the year-on-year intrinsic variations/changes in mortality were considered, the effects of COVID-19 on mortality are more profound than previously understood. This is particularly prominent for countries experiencing greater life expectancy increase in recent years.
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