ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2023
Short-term Endpoints for Cancer Screening Trials: Does Tumor Subtype Matter?
Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Late-Stage Outcomes as Surrogates for Mortality in Cancer Screening Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Late-Stage Presentation and Diagnostic Gaps in Romanian Lung Cancer Patients: A Retrospective Tertiary Center Analysis with Implications for Scalable Screening.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Clinical Significance of a Multicancer Screening Trial With Stage-Based End Points.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Revisiting the standard blueprint for biomarker development to address emerging cancer early detection technologies.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Multicancer early detection tests are precipitating a reexamination of potential short-term endpoints for cancer screening trials. A reduction in advanced stage incidence is a prime candidate, and stage-shift models that substitute early-stage for late-stage survival have been used to predict mortality reduction due to screening. However, standard stage-shift models often ignore prognostic subtypes, effectively implying that cancers detected early also have an associated subtype shift. To illustrate the differences between mortality predictions from stage-shift models that ignore versus preserve prognostic subtype, we use ovarian cancer partitioned by histologic subtype and prostate cancer partitioned by grade. We infer general conditions under which stage-shift models that preserve prognostic subtype are likely to predict mortality reductions that differ from those that ignore subtype and examine the implications for short-term endpoints based on stage in cancer screening trials.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.