ArticleScientific reports2023
Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 activity to support Australia's pandemic response: 2020-22.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Near-term forecasting of Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations in Aotearoa New Zealand.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As of January 2021, Australia had effectively controlled local transmission of COVID-19 despite a steady influx of imported cases and several local, but contained, outbreaks in 2020. Throughout 2020, state and territory public health responses were informed by weekly situational reports that included an ensemble forecast of daily COVID-19 cases for each jurisdiction. We present here an analysis of one forecasting model included in this ensemble across the variety of scenarios experienced by each jurisdiction from May to October 2020. We examine how successfully the forecasts characterised future case incidence, subject to variations in data timeliness and completeness, showcase how we adapted these forecasts to support decisions of public health priority in rapidly-evolving situations, evaluate the impact of key model features on forecast skill, and demonstrate how to assess forecast skill in real-time before the ground truth is known. Conditioning the model on the most recent, but incomplete, data improved the forecast skill, emphasising the importance of developing strong quantitative models of surveillance system characteristics, such as ascertainment delay distributions. Forecast skill was highest when there were at least 10 reported cases per day, the circumstances in which authorities were most in need of forecasts to aid in planning and response.
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