Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37253479›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2023

Risk stratified monitoring for methotrexate toxicity in immune mediated inflammatory diseases: prognostic model development and validation using primary care data from the UK.

Georgina Nakafero, Matthew J Grainge, Hywel C Williams, Tim Card, Maarten W Taal, Guruprasad P Aithal, Christopher P Fox, Christian D Mallen, Danielle A van der Windt, Matthew D Stevenson and 2 more

Registry-linked trialOpen access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07512401 (Safety of Reduced Methotrexate Lab Monitoring), which is not on this map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
7.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07512401 completednot on this map

Safety of Reduced Methotrexate Lab Monitoring: a Population-based, Target Trial Emulation Study

TypeobservationalSponsorMayo ClinicRan2012 to 2025Enrolled2,414ConditionsRheumatic DiseasesArmsStandard methotrexate lab monitoring, Reduced methotrexate lab monitoring
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Trial
  4. Prediction model for aortic dissection, aortic aneurysm, and peripheral artery disease.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Acute Transient Aminotransferase Elevation is Common With Intrathecal Methotrexate, but Liver Injury is Infrequent.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2025
    Article
  10. Review
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

Georgina NakaferoAcademic Rheumatology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3859-7354
Matthew J GraingeLifespan and Population Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Hywel C WilliamsLifespan and Population Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Tim CardLifespan and Population Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Maarten W TaalCentre for Kidney Research and Innovation, Translational Medical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Derby, UK.
Guruprasad P AithalNottingham Digestive Diseases Centre, Translational Medical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3924-4830
Christopher P FoxDepartment of Haematology, Nottingham University Hospital NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK.
Christian D MallenPrimary Care Centre Versus Arthritis, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK.
Danielle A van der WindtPrimary Care Centre Versus Arthritis, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK.
Matthew D StevensonSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3099-9877
Richard D RileyInstitute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Abhishek AbhishekAcademic Rheumatology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK abhishek.abhishek@nottingham.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-0121-4919
University of Nottingham · GBArthritis UK · GBNottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust · GBUniversity of Birmingham · GBUniversity of Sheffield · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and validate a prognostic model to inform risk stratified decisions on frequency of monitoring blood tests during long term methotrexate treatment.

designRetrospective cohort study.

settingElectronic health records within the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Gold and CPRD Aurum.

participantsAdults (≥18 years) with a diagnosis of an immune mediated inflammatory disease who were prescribed methotrexate by their general practitioner for six months or more during 2007-19.

main outcome measureDiscontinuation of methotrexate owing to abnormal monitoring blood test result. Patients were followed-up from six months after their first prescription for methotrexate in primary care to the earliest of outcome, drug discontinuation for any other reason, leaving the practice, last data collection from the practice, death, five years, or 31 December 2019. Cox regression was performed to develop the risk equation, with bootstrapping used to shrink predictor effects for optimism. Multiple imputation handled missing predictor data. Model performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination.

resultsData from 13 110 (854 events) and 23 999 (1486 events) participants were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. 11 candidate predictors (17 parameters) were included. In the development dataset, the optimism adjusted R

conclusionA prognostic model was developed and validated that uses information collected during routine clinical care and may be used to risk stratify the frequency of monitoring blood test during long term methotrexate treatment.

Indexed as

Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse ReactionsMethotrexateAdultHumansPrimary Health CarePrognosisRetrospective StudiesUnited KingdomMethotrexate

Identifiers

PMID37253479
PMCPMC10227711
OpenAlexW4378783050

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.