ArticleCommunications medicine2023
Future trends in incidence and long-term survival of metastatic cancer in the United States.
Article in Communications medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 63 citations in OpenAlex.
- Survivorship care for people affected by advanced or metastatic cancer: MASCC-ASCO standards and practice recommendations.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2024Pooled it
- What's on your mind? A qualitative analysis of concerns and self-management strategies among older adults with advanced cancer.Journal of geriatric oncology · 2025Trial
- A Feasibility Study Investigating an Exercise Program in Metastatic Cancer Based on the Patient-Preferred Delivery Mode.The oncologist · 2024Trial
- Trial
- Geographic disparities and temporal trends in aggressive prostate cancer: a SEER population-based analysis (2004-2022).Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2026Article
- Characterizing intradural spinal metastasis in the metastatic cascade: clinical course, dissemination timing, and molecular features in 69 patients.Journal of neuro-oncology · 2026Article
- Considerations for selecting immunodeficient mouse strains for cancer xenograft models.Laboratory animal research · 2026Review
- The transformative role of SBRT in the management of spinal metastases.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2026Review
- Cost-utility of focused ultrasound compared to radiotherapy for Dutch patients with uncomplicated non-spinal bone metastases.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- Radiotherapy, EMP and dormancy in TME: An integrated perspective on tumor microenvironments and long-term relapse.iScience · 2026Review
- Pan-Cancer Analysis of NOP2 Reveals Its Prognostic Relevance and Association With the Tumor Immune Microenvironment.World journal of oncology · 2026Article
- Article
- Cancer-specific survival patterns in patients with bone metastasis: a registry-based analysis of 13,742 patients.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Defining patients living long-term with incurable cancer: A modified hybrid Delphi study.Palliative medicine · 2026Article
- From in-silico QSAR modeling to in-vitro MTT assay: experimental validation of novel uPAR leads for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and skin cancer.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Tumor-on-chip's alliance with molecular pathology against metastatic disease.Journal of biomedical science · 2026Review
- Tumor biology and access to care and metastatic breast cancer outcomes.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- Systematic review and meta-analysis on the effect of physical exercise on self-reported pain in patients with metastatic cancer.Journal of cancer survivorship : research and practice · 2025Review
- Prediction of survival in patients suffering from spinal metastases: a prospective, multicenter validation study.The oncologist · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors at 8 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPrevious studies have demonstrated epidemiological trends in individual metastatic cancer subtypes; however, research forecasting long-term incidence trends and projected survivorship of metastatic cancers is lacking. We assess the burden of metastatic cancer to 2040 by (1) characterizing past, current, and forecasted incidence trends, and (2) estimating odds of long-term (5-year) survivorship.
methodsThis retrospective, serial cross-sectional, population-based study used registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 9) database. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to describe cancer incidence trends from 1988 to 2018. Autoregressive integrating moving average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast the distribution of primary metastatic cancer and metastatic cancer to specific sites from 2019 to 2040 and JoinPoint models were fitted to estimate mean projected annual percentage change (APC).
resultsThe average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence of metastatic cancer decreased by 0.80 per 100,000 individuals (1988-2018) and we forecast an APC decrease by 0.70 per 100,000 individuals (2018-2040). Analyses predict a decrease in metastases to liver (APC = -3.40, 95% CI [-3.50, -3.30]), lung (APC (2019-2030) = -1.90, 95% CI [-2.90, -1.00]); (2030-2040) = -3.70, 95% CI [-4.60, -2.80]), bone (APC = -4.00, 95% CI [-4.30, -3.70]), and brain (APC = -2.30, 95% CI [-2.60, -2.00]). By 2040, patients with metastatic cancer are predicted to have 46.7% greater odds of long-term survivorship, driven by increasing plurality of patients with more indolent forms of metastatic disease.
conclusionsBy 2040, the distribution of metastatic cancer patients is predicted to shift in predominance from invariably fatal to indolent cancers subtypes. Continued research on metastatic cancers is important to guide health policy and clinical intervention efforts, and direct allocations of healthcare resources.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.