ArticleInternational journal of colorectal disease2023
Development and validation of a nomogram to predict which patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases would benefit from primary tumor resection.
Article in International journal of colorectal disease, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrative Predictive Nomograms for Treatment Decision-Making in Resectable Synchronous Colorectal Liver Metastases.Journal of Cancer · 2025Article
- Review
- Prognostic prediction and treatment options for gastric signet ring cell carcinoma: a SEER database analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
- Complete Blood Count Alterations Prior to the Diagnosis of Colorectal Cancer May Help in the Detection of Synchronous Liver Metastases.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
purposeThe use of primary tumor resection (PTR) in the treatment of colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) patients has become increasingly controversial. Our goal is to establish a nomogram to screen for the candidates that would benefit from PTR in CRLM patients.
methodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was searched for 8366 patients with colorectal liver cancer metastases (CRLM) from 2010 to 2015. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier curve. After propensity score matching (PSM), predictors were analyzed by logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was created to predict for survival benefit of PTR using R software.
resultsAfter PSM, there were 814 patients in both PTR group and non-PTR group, respectively. The median OS time in the PTR group was 26 months (95%CI = 23.33 ~ 28.67) and the median OS time in the non-PTR group was 15 months (95%CI = 13.36 ~ 16.64). The Cox regression analysis found that PTR was an independent predictive factor (HR = 0.46, 0.41 ~ 0.52) for OS. Additionally, logistic regression was used to study the factors impacting PTR benefit, and the results showed that CEA (P = 0.016), chemotherapy (P < 0.001), N stage (P < 0.001), histological grade (P < 0.001), and lung metastasis (P = 0.001) are independent predictive factors affecting the therapeutic outcome of PTR in patients with CRLM. The developed nomogram displayed good discriminative ability in predicting the beneficial probability of PTR surgery, with the area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.801 in training set and 0.739 in validation set respectively.
conclusionWe developed a nomogram that predicts the survival benefits of PTR in CRLM patients with relatively high accuracy, and quantifies the predictive factors for PTR-related benefits.
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