ArticleValue in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research2023
A New Type 2 Diabetes Microsimulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Health Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness.
Article in Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review of Microsimulation Models in Cardiometabolic Disease: Model Calibration and Validation.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Pooled it
- The cost-effectiveness of second line diabetes medication added to standard therapy in preventing type 2 diabetes related nephropathy in Germany.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2026Article
- Development and Internal Validation of the Multiethnic Type 2 Diabetes Outcomes Model for the U.S. (DOMUS).Diabetes care · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a type 2 diabetes model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of diabetes interventions across the care continuum.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2025Article
- Management of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Risk in People With Type 2 Diabetes: Collaborative Care Plans for Primary Care Physicians Using Effective Communication Styles.Clinical diabetes : a publication of the American Diabetes Association · 2025Article
- Evaluating the Validation Process: Embracing Complexity and Transparency in Health Economic Modelling.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThis study aimed to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of public health and clinical interventions for preventing/managing type 2 diabetes.
methodsWe combined newly developed equations for complications, mortality, risk factor progression, patient utility, and cost-all based on US studies-in a microsimulation model. We performed internal and external validation of the model. To demonstrate the model's utility, we predicted remaining life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and lifetime medical cost for a representative cohort of 10 000 US adults with type 2 diabetes. We then estimated the cost-effectiveness of reducing hemoglobin A1c from 9% to 7% among adults with type 2 diabetes, using low-cost, generic, oral medications.
resultsThe model performed well in internal validation; the average absolute difference between simulated and observed incidence for 17 complications was < 8%. In external validation, the model was better at predicting outcomes in clinical trials than in observational studies. The cohort of US adults with type 2 diabetes was projected to have an average of 19.95 remaining life-years (from mean age 61), incur $187 729 in discounted medical costs, and accrue 8.79 discounted QALYs. The intervention to reduce hemoglobin A1c increased medical costs by $1256 and QALYs by 0.39, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9103 per QALY.
conclusionsUsing equations exclusively derived from US studies, this new microsimulation model achieves good prediction accuracy in US populations. The model can be used to estimate the long-term health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in the United States.
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Registered trials
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