ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2023
Onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy in Maridi, South Sudan: Modelling and exploring the impact of control measures against river blindness.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Governing AI for Pharmacovigilance in Low-Income Countries: Systems Perspective.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Onchocerciasis and non-communicable diseases in the Bafut Health District, Cameroon: Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards community-directed treatment with ivermectin.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Diagnosis and Classification of Pediatric Epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comprehensive Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Review
- Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Active infection with Onchocerca volvulus and the linkage to epilepsy/nodding syndrome.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Impact of annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin on the incidence of epilepsy in Mvolo, a two-year prospective study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOnchocerciasis, also known as "river blindness", is caused by the bite of infected female blackflies (genus Simuliidae) that transmit the parasite Onchocerca volvulus. A high onchocerciasis microfarial load increases the risk to develop epilepsy in children between the ages of 3 and 18 years. In resource-limited settings in Africa where onchocerciasis has been poorly controlled, high numbers of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) are reported. We use mathematical modeling to predict the impact of onchocerciasis control strategies on the incidence and prevalence of OAE. METHODOLOGY: We developed an OAE model within the well-established mathematical modelling framework ONCHOSIM. Using Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and grid search technique, we quantified transmission and disease parameters using OAE data from Maridi County, an onchocerciasis endemic area, in southern Republic of South Sudan. Using ONCHOSIM, we predicted the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) and vector control on the epidemiology of OAE in Maridi. PRINCIPAL
findingsThe model estimated an OAE prevalence of 4.1% in Maridi County, close to the 3.7% OAE prevalence reported in field studies. The OAE incidence is expected to rapidly decrease by >50% within the first five years of implementing annual MDA with good coverage (≥70%). With vector control at a high efficacy level (around 80% reduction of blackfly biting rates) as the sole strategy, the reduction is slower, requiring about 10 years to halve the OAE incidence. Increasing the efficacy levels of vector control, and implementing vector control simultaneously with MDA, yielded better results in preventing new cases of OAE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCES: Our modeling study demonstrates that intensifying onchocerciasis eradication efforts could substantially reduce OAE incidence and prevalence in endemic foci. Our model may be useful for optimizing OAE control strategies.
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