ArticleFood security2023
Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth.
Article in Food security, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Enhancing prediction accuracy of key biomass partitioning traits in wheat using multi-kernel genomic prediction models integrating secondary traits and environmental covariates.The plant genome · 2025Article
- Enhancing genomic-based forward prediction accuracy in wheat by integrating UAV-derived hyperspectral and environmental data with machine learning under heat-stressed environments.The plant genome · 2025Article
- Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
To address challenges associated with climate change, population growth and decline in international trade linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, determining whether national crop production can meet populations' requirements and contribute to socio-economic resilience is crucial. Three crop models and three global climate models were used in conjunction with predicted population changes. Compared with wheat production in 2000-2010, total production and per capita wheat production were significantly (P < 0.05) increase in 2020-2030, 2030-2040 and 2040-2050, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to climate change in China. However, when considering population and climate changes, the predicted per capita production values were 125.3 ± 0.3, 127.1 ± 2.3 and 128.8 ± 2.7 kg during the 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050 periods under RCP4.5, or 126.2 ± 0.7, 128.7 ± 2.5, and 131.0 ± 4.1 kg, respectively, under RCP8.5. These values do not significantly differ (P > 0.05) from the baseline level (127.9 ± 1.3 kg). The average per capita production in Loess Plateau and Gansu-Xinjiang subregions declined. In contrast, per capita production in the Huanghuai, Southwestern China, and Middle-Lower Yangtze Valleys subregions increased. The results suggest that climate change will increase total wheat production in China, but population change will partly offset the benefits to the grain market. In addition, domestic grain trade will be influenced by both climate and population changes. Wheat supply capacity will decline in the main supply areas. Further research is required to address effects of the changes on more crops and in more countries to obtain deeper understanding of the implications of climate change and population growth for global food production and assist formulation of robust policies to enhance food security. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-023-01351-x.
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