ArticleArchives of osteoporosis2023
Prognostic factors and prediction model for 1-year mortality after proximal humeral fracture.
Article in Archives of osteoporosis, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mortality in patients over 65 with proximal humerus fractures: a systematic review of 414,379 shoulders with meta-analysis.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026Pooled it
- Concomitant Polytrauma in Fall-Related Proximal Humerus Fractures: A Fracture-Subtype-Stratified Analysis of In-Hospital Outcomes.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Systematic Review of the Intraoperative Hypothermia Risk Prediction Models in Total Joint Arthroplasty Patients.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2026Review
- Plate osteosynthesis versus non-surgical treatment in displaced proximal humerus fractures-long term functional outcome and quality of life.European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2025Article
- Return to work after proximal humeral fractures: a single center study comparing conservative versus operative treatment.Orthopedic reviews · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The goal was to investigate if patient characteristics can be used to predict 1-year post-fracture mortality after proximal humeral fracture (PHF). A clinical prediction model showed that the combination of 6 pre-fracture characteristics demonstrated good predictive properties for mortality within 1 year of PHF.
introductionProximal humeral fractures (PFH) are the third most common major non-vertebral osteoporotic fractures in older persons and result in an increased mortality risk. The aim of this study was to investigate if patient characteristics can be used to predict 1-year post-fracture mortality.
methodsRetrospective study with 261 patients aged 65 and older who were treated for a PHF in University Hospitals Leuven between 2016 and 2018. Baseline variables including demographics, residential status, and comorbidities were collected. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. A clinical prediction model was developed using LASSO regression and validated using split sample and bootstrapping methods. The discrimination and calibration were evaluated.
resultsTwenty-seven (10.3%) participants died within 1-year post-PHF. Pre-fracture independent ambulation (p < 0.001), living at home at time of fracture (p < 0.001), younger age (p = 0.006), higher BMI (p = 0.012), female gender (p = 0.014), and low number of comorbidities (p < 0.001) were predictors for 1-year survival. LASSO regression identified 6 stable predictors for a prediction model: age, gender, Charlson comorbidity score, BMI, cognitive impairment, and pre-fracture nursing home residency. The discrimination was 0.891 (95% CI, 0.833 to 0.949) in the training sample, 0.878 (0.792 to 0.963) in the validation sample and 0.756 (0.636 to 0.876) in the bootstrapping samples. A similar performance was observed for patients with and without surgery. The developed model demonstrated good calibration.
conclusionsThe combination of 6 pre-fracture characteristics demonstrated good predictive properties for mortality within 1 year of PHF. These findings can guide PHF treatment decisions.
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