ArticlePNAS nexus2023
Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.
Article in PNAS nexus, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Interactions of SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus influence epidemic timing and risk.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of influenza-associated lower respiratory infections, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Uptake, willingness, and practices toward seasonal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers in China: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Suppression and resurgence: the evolving epidemiology of seasonal influenza from 2015 to 2024 in a core urban district of Beijing, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically-attended influenza infection in 2023/24 season in Hangzhou, China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- The optimal strategy for seasonal influenza vaccination to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang, China: an integrated transmission-dynamic and health-economic modeling analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Infectivity and fatality of influenza in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic year.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Exploration of the impact of air pollutants on the influenza epidemic after the emergence of COVID-19: based on Jiangsu Province, China (2020-2024).Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Quantitative assessment of Public Health and Social Measures implementation and relaxation on influenza transmission during COVID-19 in China: SEIABR and GBDT models.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Article
- Challenges and Strategies for Influenza Response After COVID-19 Pandemic.Infectious diseases & immunity · 2024Article
- An Intense Out-of-Season Rebound of Influenza Activity After the Relaxation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Restrictions in Beijing, China.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 on future influenza trends in Mainland China.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Changing patterns of infectious diseases in children during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2023Review
- Antiviral Treatment in Older Chinese Patient with SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza A Virus Co-Infection: A Case Series.Infection and drug resistance · 2023Article
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9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.
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