ArticleBMJ global health2023
Mapping malaria incidence using routine health facility surveillance data in Uganda.
Article in BMJ global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- Where and why malaria persists in heterogeneous transmission settings: insights from routine health facility data.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Impact of indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in 8 districts in West Nile and Acholi regions, Uganda: a quasi-experimental study.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Household and community-based approaches to malaria and cholera prevention: A narrative review with case studies from Uganda and Mozambique.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Review
- Accuracy of Plasmodium falciparum genetic data for estimating parasite prevalence and malaria incidence in Uganda.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Accuracy of Plasmodium falciparum genetic data for estimating parasite prevalence and malaria incidence in Uganda.Research square · 2025Article
- Evidence-based decision making for malaria elimination applying the Freedom From Infection statistical framework in five malaria eliminating countries: an observational study.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Observational
- Integrating vulnerability and hazard in malaria risk mapping: the elimination context of Senegal.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Increasing the resolution of malaria early warning systems for use by local health actors.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Optimization of in vivo antimalarial efficacy of combinations of aqueous leaf extracts of Artemisia annua L., Vernonia amygdalina Del, and Microglossa pyrifolia (Lam.) Kuntze using factorial design.BMC complementary medicine and therapies · 2024Article
- Descriptive, Hospital-Based, 10-Year Study of Malaria Transmission in Goa, a Southwest Indian State in the Malaria Elimination Phase.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionMaps of malaria risk are important tools for allocating resources and tracking progress. Most maps rely on cross-sectional surveys of parasite prevalence, but health facilities represent an underused and powerful data source. We aimed to model and map malaria incidence using health facility data in Uganda.
methodsUsing 24 months (2019-2020) of individual-level outpatient data collected from 74 surveillance health facilities located in 41 districts across Uganda (n=445 648 laboratory-confirmed cases), we estimated monthly malaria incidence for parishes within facility catchment areas (n=310) by estimating care-seeking population denominators. We fit spatio-temporal models to the incidence estimates to predict incidence rates for the rest of Uganda, informed by environmental, sociodemographic and intervention variables. We mapped estimated malaria incidence and its uncertainty at the parish level and compared estimates to other metrics of malaria. To quantify the impact that indoor residual spraying (IRS) may have had, we modelled counterfactual scenarios of malaria incidence in the absence of IRS.
resultsOver 4567 parish-months, malaria incidence averaged 705 cases per 1000 person-years. Maps indicated high burden in the north and northeast of Uganda, with lower incidence in the districts receiving IRS. District-level estimates of cases correlated with cases reported by the Ministry of Health (Spearman's r=0.68, p<0.0001), but were considerably higher (40 166 418 cases estimated compared with 27 707 794 cases reported), indicating the potential for underreporting by the routine surveillance system. Modelling of counterfactual scenarios suggest that approximately 6.2 million cases were averted due to IRS across the study period in the 14 districts receiving IRS (estimated population 8 381 223).
conclusionOutpatient information routinely collected by health systems can be a valuable source of data for mapping malaria burden. National Malaria Control Programmes may consider investing in robust surveillance systems within public health facilities as a low-cost, high benefit tool to identify vulnerable regions and track the impact of interventions.
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