ArticleThe Indian journal of medical research
The potential impact of vaccination on tuberculosis burden in India: A modelling analysis.
Article in The Indian journal of medical research. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Acceptance and expectations of healthcare workers and community during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Bhavnagar city, western India: a qualitative exploration.BMC health services research · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Background & objectives: Vaccination will play an important role in meeting the end tuberculosis (TB) goals. While certain vaccine candidates in advanced stages of clinical trials raise hope for the future availability of new tools, in the immediate term, there is also increasing interest in Bacille Calmette-Guérin revaccination among adults and adolescents as a potential strategy. Here, we sought to estimate the potential epidemiological impact of TB vaccination in India. Methods: We developed a deterministic, age-structured, compartmental model of TB in India. Data from the recent national prevalence survey was used to inform epidemiological burden while also incorporating a vulnerable population who may be prioritized for vaccination, the latter consistent with the burden of undernutrition. Using this framework, the potential impact on incidence and mortality of a vaccine with 50 per cent efficacy was estimated, if rolled out in 2023 to cover 50 per cent of the unvaccinated each year. Simulated impacts were compared for disease- vs. infection-preventing vaccines, as well as when prioritizing vulnerable groups (those with undernutrition) rather than the general population. A sensitivity analyses were also conducted with respect to the duration, and efficacy, of vaccine immunity. Results: When rolled out in the general population, an infection-preventing vaccine would avert 12 per cent (95% Bayesian credible intervals (Crl): 4.3-28%) of cumulative TB incidence between 2023 and 2030, while a disease-preventing vaccine would avert 29 per cent (95% Crl: 24-34%). Although the vulnerable population accounts for only around 16 per cent of India's population, prioritizing this group for vaccination would achieve almost half the impact of rollout in the general population, in the example of an infection-preventing vaccine. Sensitivity analysis also highlights the importance of the duration and efficacy of vaccine-induced immunity. Interpretation & conclusions: These results highlight how even a vaccine with moderate effectiveness (50%) could achieve substantial reductions in TB burden in India, especially when prioritized for the most vulnerable.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.