ArticleNature ecology & evolution2023
Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.
Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed.
- Temperature mediates variation in avian sensitivity to forest cover.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Marine fish ranges are expanding and shifting deeper across the European continental shelf.Nature communications · 2026Article
- A Matter of Degrees: Latitudinal Variation in the Transcriptional Response to High and Low Temperatures in an Estuarine Cnidarian.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Lighting the way: how the squid-Vibrio model can inform thermal impacts on symbiotic dynamics.The Journal of experimental biology · 2026Review
- Evolutionary and environmental determinants of heat tolerance and acclimation capacity in herpetofauna.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Review
- Warm Edge Kelp Populations Show Elevated Volatility to Marine Heatwaves.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Population Genomics Reveals Local Adaptation Related to Temperature Variation in Two Stream Frog Species: Implications for Vulnerability to Climate Warming.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- An Integrated Multi-Scale Approach to Habitat Modelling and Conservation for a Threatened Marsupial in a Dynamic and Fire-Prone Landscape.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Fine-Grain Data Reveal Vulnerability of Biodiversity to Climate Change.Global change biology · 2025Article
- A theoretical framework for scaling ecological niches from individuals to species.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Morphological and physiological responses to aridity in narrowly- and widely-distributed plant species in drylands.Science China. Life sciences · 2025Article
- Multivariate signals of population collapse in a high-throughput ecological experiment.Ecology · 2025Article
- Impact of climate warming on the foraging behavior of northernmost distributed primates.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- High tree diversity exposed to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions even under minimal anthropogenic climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Caspian Red Deer Population Dynamics Under Changing Climate Conditions in Central Alborz: Two Decades of Conservation En Route to Restoration.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Climate change redefines sea turtle hotspots: Vessel strike risks and gaps in protected areas.Science advances · 2025Article
- Adaptation of Marine Heterotrophic Protists to Long-Term Warming Selection.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Species Diversity and Distribution of Amphibians in Tangjiahe National Nature Reserve, China.Biology · 2025Article
- Climate change impacts on altitudinal movements of society large mammals in the Alborz.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate-Driven Range Dynamics ofEcology and evolution · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.
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