ArticleBMJ open2023
Development and validation of a novel nomogram of 1-year mortality in the elderly with hip fracture: a study of the MIMIC-III database.
Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- A retrospective study on the application of unilateral epidural anesthesia in older patients with hip fracture.BMC geriatrics · 2026Article
- Independent risk factors and survival prediction in hip refractures patients: insights from a 10-year cohort.Journal of bone and mineral metabolism · 2025Article
- Pre-fracture functional status and 30-day recovery predict 5-year survival in patients with hip fracture: findings from a prospective real-world study.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025Observational
- MORTALITY PREDICTOR IN ELDERLY PATIENTS AFTER PROXIMAL THIRD FEMUR FRACTURE: ANALYSIS OF 395 CASES.Acta ortopedica brasileira · 2025Article
- Trends in Hospital Stay, Complication Rate, and Mortality in Hip Fracture Patients: A Two-Decade Comparison at a National Tertiary Referral Center.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Establishment and external validation of a nomogram for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with skull fracture.Frontiers in neurology · 2023Article
- In-Hospital Mortality Prediction Model for Critically Ill Older Adult Patients Transferred from the Emergency Department to the Intensive Care Unit.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2023Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveHip fracture is a prevalent condition with a significant death rate among the elderly. We sought to develop a nomogram-based survival prediction model for older patients with hip fracture.
designA retrospective case-control study.
settingThe data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III V.1.4).
participantsThe clinical features of elderly patients with hip fracture, including basic information, comorbidities, severity score, laboratory tests and therapy, were filtered out based on the MIMIC-III V.1.4. METHODS AND
main outcome measuresAll patients included in the study were from critical care and randomly divided into training and validation sets (7:3). On the basis of retrieved data, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent predictive variables of 1-year mortality, and then constructed a risk prediction nomogram. The predictive values of the nomogram model were evaluated by the concordance indexes (C-indexes), receiver operating characteristic curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve.
resultsA total of 341 elderly patients with hip fracture were included in this study; 121 cases died within 1 year. After LASSO regression and multiple logistic regression analysis, a novel nomogram contained the predictive variables of age, weight, the proportion of lymphocyte count, liver disease, malignant tumour and congestive heart failure. The constructed model proved satisfactory discrimination with C-indexes of 0.738 (95% CI 0.674 to 0.802) in the training set and 0.713 (95% CI 0.608 to 0.819) in the validation set. The calibration curve shows a good degree of fitting between the predicted and observed probabilities and the DCA confirms the model's clinical practicability.
conclusionsThe novel prediction model provides personalised predictions for 1-year mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures. Compared with other hip fracture models, our nomogram is particularly suitable for predicting long-term mortality in critical patients.
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