ArticleEpidemiology and health2023
Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population.
Article in Epidemiology and health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cardiorenal Outcomes of Empagliflozin Versus Dapagliflozin in Secondary Prevention Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Nationwide Cohort Study.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- The PREVENT Risk Equations and Cardiovascular Prevention in East Asia.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2026Review
- Integrating phenotypic information of obstructive sleep apnea and deep representation of sleep-event sequences for cardiovascular risk prediction.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- Behavioral and health-factor domains of Life's Essential 8 in advanced cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome among Korean adults: a nationally representative cross-sectional analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- Serum Uric Acid as a Potential Risk Marker for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: Using the Hisayama Study-based Prediction Model.JMA journal · 2025Review
- Increased risk of colorectal cancer in young males with higher cardiovascular risk: A nationwide population-based cohort study.World journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2025Article
- Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Models in China, Japan, and Korea: Implications for East Asians?JACC. Asia · 2025Review
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesProper risk assessment is important for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use in Korea. This study sought to develop a 10-year risk prediction model for incident ASCVD.
methodsUsing the National Sample Cohort of Korea, 325,934 subjects aged 20-80 years without previous ASCVD were enrolled. ASCVD was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The Korean atherosclerotic cardiovas cular disease risk prediction (K-CVD) model was developed separately for men and women using the development dataset and validated in the validation dataset. Furthermore, the model performance was compared with the Framingham risk score (FRS) and pooled cohort equation (PCE).
resultsOver 10 years of follow-up, 4,367 ASCVD events occurred in the overall population. The predictors of ASCVD included in the model were age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, urine protein, and lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering treatment. The K-CVD model had good discrimination and strong calibration in the validation dataset (time-dependent area under the curve=0.846; 95% confidence interval, 0.828 to 0.864; calibration χ2=4.73, goodness-of-fit p=0.32). Compared with our model, both FRS and PCE showed worse calibration, overestimating ASCVD risk in the Korean population.
conclusionsThrough a nationwide cohort, we developed a model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction in a contemporary Korean population. The K-CVD model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in Koreans. This population-based risk prediction tool would help to appropriately identify high-risk individuals and provide preventive interventions in the Korean population.
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