ArticleBritish journal of cancer2023
Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Late-Stage Outcomes as Surrogates for Mortality in Cancer Screening Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Impact of screening participation on modelled mortality benefits of a multi-cancer early detection test by socioeconomic group in England.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2024Trial
- Comment on: 'Modelled impact of a multi-cancer early detection screening programme on cancer treatment in England'.British journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Paired Capillary and Venous Serum Specimen Agreement for Protein Biomarker Measurements and Risk Category Outputs in a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Tool.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Non-Invasive Diagnosis of Early Breast Cancer: Current and Emerging Liquid Biopsy Biomarkers.Cancers · 2026Review
- Ten Recommendations for Modelling Cost Effectiveness of Screening: Perspectives of an International Stakeholder Group.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Review
- Modelled impact of a multi-cancer early detection screening programme on cancer treatment in England.British journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Challenges in the future of cancer screening.International journal of cancer · 2026Review
- A Socio-ecological Analysis of Factors Influencing the Perceived Value of Multicancer Early Detection Testing in the United States.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- Modelled impact of a multi-cancer early detection screening programme on the demand for diagnostics in England.British journal of cancer · 2026Article
- The National Health Service-Galleri multicancer screening trial: explanation and justification of unique and important design issues.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- A guide to cancer screening.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2026Review
- Engineering of the Melanoma Inhibitor of Apoptosis (ML-IAP) Anticancer Peptide Through Comprehensive In Silico Approaches.Human mutation · 2026Article
- Liquid biopsy, multi-cancer early detection, and artificial intelligence: new frontiers in cancer screening from a technological and immunological perspective.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- The impact of multicancer early detection tests on cancer stage shift: A 10-year microsimulation model.Cancer · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of CA125- and age-informed risk-based triage for ovarian cancer detection in primary care.British journal of cancer · 2025Article
- Modeling the Impact of Multicancer Early Detection Tests: A Review of Natural History of Disease Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Review
- Clinical Significance of a Multicancer Screening Trial With Stage-Based End Points.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Liquid biopsy-based multi-cancer early detection: an exploration road from evidence to implementation.Science bulletin · 2025Review
- Promises and pitfalls of multi-cancer early detection using liquid biopsy tests.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundScreening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.
methodsA natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population survival model to account for an increased risk of death from cfDNA-detectable cancers relative to cfDNA-non-detectable cancers. We developed another model allowing some cancers to metastasise directly from stage I, bypassing intermediate tumour stages. We used incidence and survival-by-stage data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate longer-term benefits to a cohort screened between ages 50-79 years.
resultsEstimated late-stage and mortality reductions were robust to a range of assumptions. With the least favourable dwell (sojourn) time and cfDNA status hazard ratio assumptions, we estimated, among 100,000 screened individuals, 67 (17%) fewer cancer deaths per year corresponding to 2029 fewer deaths in those screened between ages 50-79 years.
conclusionRealising the potential benefits of MCED tests could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and mortality.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.