CEA dynamics for predicting response after anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer.

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is the most widely used tumor marker in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). However, its potential as a predictive marker of progression in mCRC during systemic chemotherapy, particularly in patients receiving monoclonal antibodies as a combination therapy, has remained of interest. Herein, we investigated whether CEA changes could predict disease progression and clinical outcomes in patients with mCRC cotreated with systemic chemotherapy and/or biologic agents. A total of 1261 patients with mCRC undergoing a first-line systemic treatment were included in this retrospective study. We analyzed the optimal cut-off value for CEA changes to predict progression at the first response evaluation by the treatment arm (chemotherapy alone, chemotherapy plus anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) monoclonal antibody [mAb], and chemotherapy plus anti-epidermal growth factor receptor [EGFR] mAb). These cut-off values were then used to predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). When stratified by their treatment arm, 891 (70.6%), 266 (21.0%), and 104 (8.2%) of the study patients were included in the chemotherapy alone-, anti-VEGF mAb, and anti-EGFR mAb groups, respectively. The optimal CEA cut-off values were 16.5% and 38.9% increase in the whole cohort and anti-EGFR mAb group, respectively, and these values showed high sensitivity and specificity for predicting disease progression. The patients in the entire population and anti-EGFR mAb group with CEA changes below these cut-off values showed significantly better OS and PFS outcomes compared those whose changes were above cut-off values. Among the patients with mCRC treated with anti-VEGF mAb, no associations were found between OS or PFS outcomes and CEA changes. CEA is potentially a good surrogate marker for predicting disease progression and survival outcomes in patients with mCRC receiving first-line systemic chemotherapy alone or chemotherapy with anti-EGFR mAb, whereas it is less effective in those treated with anti-VEGF mAb.