ArticleNPJ breast cancer2023
PREDICT validity for prognosis of breast cancer patients with pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants.
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Article in NPJ breast cancer, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4citing papers in PubMed
2.2field-weighted citation impact, top 12% of its field
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Validation of PREDICT tool v2.2 in patients with early-stage breast cancer enrolled in the GIM and MIG trials.ESMO open · 2026Article
- The evolution of chemical biology into translational physiology and precision medicine.American journal of physiology. Cell physiology · 2025Review
- Estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer and adverse outcome in BRCA2 mutation carriers and young non-carrier patients.NPJ breast cancer · 2023Article
- Global trends inFrontiers in oncology · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
70 authors at 20 institutions in 17 countries.
Taru A MuranenDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. taru.a.muranen@helsinki.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5895-1808
Anna MorraDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Sofia KhanDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4185-8882
Daniel R BarnesCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Manjeet K BollaCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Joe DennisCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4591-1214
Renske KeemanDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5452-9933
Goska LeslieCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5756-6222
Michael T ParsonsPopulation Health Division, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3242-8477
Qin WangCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Thomas U AhearnDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0771-7752
Kristiina AittomäkiDepartment of Medical and Clinical Genetics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Irene L AndrulisFred A. Litwin Center for Cancer Genetics, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute of Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4226-6435
Banu K ArunDepartment of Breast Medical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
Sabine BehrensDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9714-104X
Katarzyna BialkowskaDepartment of Genetics and Pathology, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland.
Stig E BojesenCopenhagen General Population Study, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Herlev, Denmark.
Nicola J CampDepartment of Internal Medicine and Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Jenny Chang-ClaudeDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Kamila CzeneDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Peter DevileeDepartment of Pathology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8023-2009
HEBON investigators
Susan M DomchekBasser Center for BRCA, Abramson Cancer Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Alison M DunningCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Christoph EngelInstitute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
D Gareth EvansPrevent Breast Cancer Research Unit, The Nightingale Centre, Manchester University Hospital Foundation NHS Trust, Manchester, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8482-5784
Manuela Gago-DominguezHealth Research Institute of Santiago de Compostela Foundation (FIDIS), SERGAS, Cancer Genetics and Epidemiology Group Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Montserrat García-ClosasDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1033-2650
Anne-Marie GerdesDepartment of Clinical Genetics, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Gord GlendonFred A. Litwin Center for Cancer Genetics, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute of Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Pascal GuénelTeam "Exposome and Heredity", CESP, Gustave Roussy, INSERM, University Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Villejuif, France.
Eric HahnenCenter for Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Ute HamannMolecular Genetics of Breast Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Helen HansonSouthWest Thames Centre for Genomics, St George's University Hospital's NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Maartje J HooningDepartment of Medical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Reiner HoppeDr. Margarete Fischer-Bosch-Institute of Clinical Pharmacology, Stuttgart, Germany.
Louise IzattClinical Genetics, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1258-4843
Anna JakubowskaDepartment of Genetics and Pathology, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5650-0501
Paul A JamesParkville Familial Cancer Centre, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4361-4657
Vessela N KristensenDepartment of Medical Genetics, Oslo University Hospital and University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Fiona LallooClinical Genetics Service, Manchester Centre for Genomic Medicine, Manchester University Hospitals Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK.
Geoffrey J LindemanParkville Familial Cancer Centre, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9386-2416
Arto MannermaaTranslational Cancer Research Area, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
Sara MargolinDepartment of Oncology, Stockholm South General Hospital (Södersjukhuset), Stockholm, Sweden.
Susan L NeuhausenDepartment of Population Sciences, Beckman Research Institute of City of Hope, Duarte, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5053-0390
William G NewmanDivision of Evolution and Genomic Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6382-4678
Paolo PeterlongoGenome Diagnostics Program, IFOM ETS - The AIRC Institute of Molecular Oncology, Milan, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6951-6855
Kelly-Anne PhillipsDepartment of Medical Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Center, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Miquel Angel PujanaTranslational Research Laboratory, IDIBELL (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute), Catalan Institute of Oncology, CIBERONC, Barcelona, Spain.
Johanna RantalaClinical Genetics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Karina RønlundDepartment of Clinical Genetics, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Vejle Hospital, Vejle, Denmark.
Emmanouil SaloustrosDepartment of Oncology, University Hospital of Larissa, Larissa, Greece.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0485-0120
Rita K SchmutzlerCenter for Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Andreas SchneeweissNational Center for Tumor Diseases, University Hospital and German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
Christian F SingerDept of OB/GYN and Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Maija SuvantoDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9271-7778
Yen Yen TanDept of OB/GYN and Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1063-5352
Manuel R TeixeiraDepartment of Genetics, Portuguese Oncology Institute, Porto, Portugal.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4896-5982
Mads ThomassenDepartment of Clinical Genetics, Odense University Hospital, Odence C, Denmark.
Marc TischkowitzDepartment of Medical Genetics, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Vishakha TripathiClinical Genetics, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Barbara WappenschmidtCenter for Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Emily ZhaoCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Douglas F EastonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2444-3247
Antonis C AntoniouCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Georgia Chenevix-TrenchCancer Division, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Paul D P PharoahCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8494-732X
Marjanka K SchmidtDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2228-429X
Carl BlomqvistDepartment of Oncology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Heli NevanlinnaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0916-2976
University of Cambridge · GBUniversity of Helsinki · FIGerman Cancer Research Center · DEKarolinska Institutet · SEGuy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust · GBManchester Academic Health Science Centre · GBMount Sinai Hospital · CANational Institutes of Health · USQIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute · AUThe Royal Melbourne Hospital · AUUniversity of Cologne · DEOslo University Hospital · NOThe Netherlands Cancer Institute · NLUniversidade do Porto · PTDr. Margarete Fischer-Bosch-Institute of Clinical Pharmacology · DEInserm · FRLeiden University Medical Center · NLPeter MacCallum Cancer Centre · AUPomeranian Medical University · PLSt George’s University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust · GB
Funding
Cancer Research UK 23382Cancer Research UK 26886Wellcome Trust
Abstract
We assessed the PREDICT v 2.2 for prognosis of breast cancer patients with pathogenic germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants, using follow-up data from 5453 BRCA1/2 carriers from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) and the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). PREDICT for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer had modest discrimination for BRCA1 carrier patients overall (Gönen & Heller unbiased concordance 0.65 in CIMBA, 0.64 in BCAC), but it distinguished clearly the high-mortality group from lower risk categories. In an analysis of low to high risk categories by PREDICT score percentiles, the observed mortality was consistently lower than the expected mortality, but the confidence intervals always included the calibration slope. Altogether, our results encourage the use of the PREDICT ER-negative model in management of breast cancer patients with germline BRCA1 variants. For the PREDICT ER-positive model, the discrimination was slightly lower in BRCA2 variant carriers (concordance 0.60 in CIMBA, 0.65 in BCAC). Especially, inclusion of the tumor grade distorted the prognostic estimates. The breast cancer mortality of BRCA2 carriers was underestimated at the low end of the PREDICT score distribution, whereas at the high end, the mortality was overestimated. These data suggest that BRCA2 status should also be taken into consideration with tumor characteristics, when estimating the prognosis of ER-positive breast cancer patients.
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