ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2023
Projecting future risk of dengue related to hydrometeorological conditions in mainland China under climate change scenarios: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07124949 (Chinese Migrant Population Health Cohort), which is not on this map. Cited by 16 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Chinese Migrant Population Health Cohort
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate and socioeconomic factors drive heterogeneous dengue risk escalation in the Chinese population.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Habitat Quality Assessment Within Expanded Ranges of Dengue Vectors Using a Composite Index Scale.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Meteorological drivers and short-term prediction of dengue fever in a tropical region of China: evidence from Hainan Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Extreme weather events and dengue in Southeast Asia: A regionally-representative analysis of 291 locations from 1998 to 2021.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Impact of human mobility and weather conditions on Dengue mosquito abundance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Notified Vector-Borne Diseases - China, 2005-2024.China CDC weekly · 2025Article
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Transgression of planetary boundaries and the effects on child health through an infectious diseases lens.Current opinion in pediatrics · 2025Review
- Quantifying the temporal trends of the combined effect of temperature and relative humidity on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Yunnan, China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Climate-based modelling and forecasting of dengue in three endemic departments of Peru.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China.Health data science · 2024Review
- Socio-economic factors and its influence on the association between temperature and dengue incidence in 61 Provinces of the Philippines, 2010-2019.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Observational
- Assessing the Relationship between Annual Surface Temperature Changes and the Burden of Dengue: Implications for Climate Change and Global Health Outcomes.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Impact of climate change on rheumatic diseases: A scoping review.The journal of climate change and healthReview
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Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWe have limited knowledge on the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on dengue incidence in China and its associated disease burden in a future with a changed climate. This study projects the excess risk of dengue caused by climate change-induced hydrometeorological conditions across mainland China.
methodsIn this modelling study, the historical association between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and dengue was estimated with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model from 70 cities. The association combined with the dengue-transmission biological model was used to project the annual excess risk of dengue related to PDSI by 2100 across mainland China, under three representative concentration pathways ([RCP] 2·6, RCP 4·5, and RCP 8·5).
findings93 101 dengue cases were reported between 2013 and 2019 in mainland China. Dry and wet conditions within 3 months lag were associated with increased risk of dengue. Locations with potential dengue risk in China will expand in the future. The hydrometeorological changes are projected to substantially affect the risk of dengue in regions with mid-to-low latitudes, especially the coastal areas under high emission scenarios. By 2100, the annual average increased excess risk is expected to range from 12·56% (95% empirical CI 9·54-22·24) in northwest China to 173·62% (153·15-254·82) in south China under the highest emission scenario.
interpretationHydrometeorological conditions are predicted to increase the risk of dengue in the future in the south, east, and central areas of mainland China in disproportionate patterns. Our findings have implications for the preparation of public health interventions to minimise the health hazards of non-optimal hydrometeorological conditions in a context of climate change.
fundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China.
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