Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37164477›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2023

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040.

András Wéber, Eileen Morgan, Jerome Vignat, Mathieu Laversanne, Margherita Pizzato, Harriet Rumgay, Deependra Singh, Péter Nagy, István Kenessey, Isabelle Soerjomataram and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. A trans-omics gene-smoking interaction study of lung cancer based on consortium data.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Observational
  10. Review
  11. Review
  12. [Treatment of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer].Innere Medizin (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2025
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Emerging Trends in Global Lung Cancer Burden.Seminars in respiratory and critical care medicine · 2025
    Review
  15. Article
  16. The Current Roadmap of Lung Cancer Biology, Genomics and Racial Disparity.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

András WéberCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France weber.andras@oncol.hu.ORCID 0000-0003-1605-8226
Eileen MorganCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Jerome VignatCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Mathieu LaversanneCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Margherita PizzatoCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Harriet RumgayCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Deependra SinghCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Péter NagyDepartment of Molecular Immunology and Toxicology and the National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary.
István KenesseyHungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary.
Isabelle SoerjomataramCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Freddie BrayCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesLung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies. DESIGN AND

settingFor this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020.

resultsLC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau.

conclusionThe current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

Indexed as

Global HealthLung NeoplasmsCause of DeathFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleSmokingTobacco Smokingepidemiologyhealth policypublic health

Identifiers

PMID37164477
PMCPMC10174019

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.