Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37159476›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data.

Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Damiano Pasetto, Lorenzo Mari, Stefano Miccoli, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Andrea Rinaldo

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Epidemicity conditions in spatial models of infectious diseases.Bollettino della Unione matematica italiana (2008) · 2026
    Article
  3. TheCommunications physics · 2026
    Article
  4. A mobility-adjusted framework for regional RBMC infectious diseases · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Emergence of the reproduction matrix in epidemic forecasting.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024
    Article
  11. Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Cristiano TrevisinLaboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne 1015, Switzerland.
Enrico BertuzzoDipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venezia 30172, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5872-0666
Damiano PasettoDipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venezia 30172, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-6892-9826
Lorenzo MariDipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1326-9992
Stefano MiccoliDipartimento di Meccanica, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-7447-049X
Renato CasagrandiDipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5177-803X
Marino GattoDipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-8063-9178
Andrea RinaldoLaboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne 1015, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-2546-9548

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections among different communities may thus be misrepresented unless explicitly measured and accounted for in the renewal equations. Here, we first derive the equations that include spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers, ℛ

Indexed as

COVID-19Basic Reproduction NumberBayes TheoremHumansIncidenceLikelihood FunctionsCOVID-19disease generation intervalhuman mobilityinfection spreading mechanismsparticle filtering

Identifiers

PMID37159476
PMCPMC10193953

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.