Caldera collapse thresholds correlate with magma chamber dimensions.

Explosive caldera-forming eruptions eject voluminous magma during the gravitational collapse of the roof of the magma chamber. Caldera collapse is known to occur by rapid decompression of a magma chamber at shallow depth, however, the thresholds for magma chamber decompression that promotes caldera collapse have not been tested using examples from actual caldera-forming eruptions. Here, we investigated the processes of magma chamber decompression leading to caldera collapse using two natural examples from Aira and Kikai calderas in southwestern Japan. The analysis of water content in phenocryst glass embayments revealed that Aira experienced a large magmatic underpressure before the onset of caldera collapse, whereas caldera collapse occurred with a relatively small underpressure at Kikai. Our friction models for caldera faults show that the underpressure required for a magma chamber to collapse is proportional to the square of the depth to the magma chamber for calderas of the same horizontal size. This model explains why the relatively deep magma system of Aira required a larger underpressure for collapse when compared with the shallower magma chamber of Kikai. The distinct magma chamber underpressure thresholds can explain variations in the evolution of caldera-forming eruptions and the eruption sequences for catastrophic ignimbrites during caldera collapse.