Development and validation of nomograms to predict the survival probability and occurrence of a second primary malignancy of male breast cancer patients: a population-based analysis.

Background: Male breast cancer (MBC) is rare, which has restricted prospective research among MBC patients. With effective treatments, the prognosis of MBC patients has improved and developing a second primary malignancy (SPM) has become a life-threatening event for MBC survivors. However, few studies have focused on the prognosis of MBC patients and looked into the SPM issue in MBC survivors. Method: We reviewed MBC patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2016 from the latest Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Plus database. Competing risk models and nomograms were conducted for predicting the risk of cancer-specific death and SPM occurrence. C-indexes, calibration curves, ROC curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were applied for validation. Result: A total of 1,843 MBC patients with complete information were finally enrolled and 60 (3.26%) had developed an SPM. Prostate cancer (40%) was the most common SPM. The median OS of all the enrolled patients was 102.41 months, while the median latency from the initial MBC diagnosis to the subsequent diagnosis of SPM was 67.2 months. The patients who suffered from an SPM shared a longer OS than those patients with only one MBC ( Conclusion: We, for the first time, included treatment information and clinical parameters to construct a nomogram to predict not only the survival probability of MBC patients but also the probability of developing an SPM in MBC survivors, which were helpful in individual risk estimation, patient follow-up, and counseling in MBC patients.