ArticleNature communications2023
Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Comparing built-up area datasets to assess urban exposure to coastal hazards in Europe.Scientific data · 2024Article
- Scientific frontiers on migration and sustainability.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Climate change and human security in coastal regions.Cambridge prisms. Coastal futures · 2024Review
- Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.