Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37149424›Full record

ArticleSurgery2023

Development and validation of a multivariable preoperative prediction model for postoperative length of stay in a broad inpatient surgical population.

Emily M Mason, William G Henderson, Michael R Bronsert, Kathryn L Colborn, Adam R Dyas, Anne Lambert-Kerzner, Robert A Meguid

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Surgery, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Emily M MasonClinical Science Program, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Graduate School, Colorado Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute, Aurora, CO. Electronic address: Emily.Mason@ucdenver.edu.
William G HendersonSurgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO; Adult and Child Consortium for Health Outcomes Research and Delivery Science, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO; Department of Biostatistics and Informatics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO.
Michael R BronsertSurgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO; Adult and Child Consortium for Health Outcomes Research and Delivery Science, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO.
Kathryn L ColbornSurgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO; Adult and Child Consortium for Health Outcomes Research and Delivery Science, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO; Department of Biostatistics and Informatics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO.
Adam R DyasSurgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO.
Anne Lambert-KerznerSurgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO.
Robert A MeguidSurgical Outcomes and Applied Research Program, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO; Adult and Child Consortium for Health Outcomes Research and Delivery Science, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, School of Medicine, Aurora, CO. Electronic address: robert.meguid@CUAnschutz.edu.

Funding

NIH Prior Approval Process ProfessionalUL1TR002535 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI SOKOL, RONALD J. · 2018 to 2022
$51.1M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002535
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPostoperative length of stay is a meaningful patient-centered outcome and an important determinant of healthcare costs. The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System preoperatively predicts 12 postoperative adverse events using 8 preoperative variables, but its ability to predict postoperative length of stay has not been assessed. We aimed to determine whether the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System variables could accurately predict postoperative length of stay up to 30 days in a broad inpatient surgical population.

methodsThis was a retrospective analysis of the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program adult database from 2012 to 2018. A model using the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System variables and a 28-variable "full" model, incorporating all available American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program preoperative nonlaboratory variables, were fit to the analytical cohort (2012-2018) using multiple linear regression and compared using model performance metrics. Internal chronological validation of the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System model was conducted using training (2012-2017) and test (2018) datasets.

resultsWe analyzed 3,295,028 procedures. The adjusted R

conclusionThe parsimonious Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System model can preoperatively predict postoperative length of stay up to 30 days for inpatient surgical procedures almost as accurately as a model using all 28 American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program preoperative nonlaboratory variables and has shown acceptable internal chronological validation.

Indexed as

InpatientsPostoperative ComplicationsAdultHumansLength of StayRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID37149424
PMCPMC10272088

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.