ArticleCancer epidemiology2023
Breast and colorectal cancer recurrence-free survival estimates in the US: Modeling versus active data collection.
Article in Cancer epidemiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed.
- International comparisons of survival after recurrent metastatic breast cancer in four countries: A population-based study.Breast (Edinburgh, Scotland) · 2026Article
- Leveraging glucan-induced trained immunity for the epigenetic and metabolic rewiring of macrophages to enhance colorectal cancer vaccine response.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Metastatic Recurrence of Breast Cancer by Stage and Molecular Profile: A Population-Based Study Among Italian Women.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Refined Algorithm for Identifying Recurrence Among Patients with Non-Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Based on Danish National Health Data Registries.Clinical epidemiology · 2025Article
- Use of Circulating Tumor DNA to Guide Decision-making in Adjuvant Colon Cancer.Current oncology reports · 2024Review
- Prediction of Risk of Metastatic Recurrence for Female Breast Cancer Patients in the Presence of Competing Causes of Death.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundA modeling method was developed to estimate recurrence-free survival using cancer registry survival data. This study aims to validate the modeled recurrence-free survival against "gold-standard" estimates from data collected by the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) Patient-Centered Outcomes Research (PCOR) project.
methodsWe compared 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival using modeling and empirical estimates from the PCOR project that collected disease-free status, tumor progression and recurrence for colorectal and female breast cancer cases diagnosed in 2011 in 5 U.S. state registries. To estimate empirical recurrence-free survival, we developed an algorithm that combined disease-free, recurrence, progression, and date information from NPCR-PCOR data. We applied the modeling method to relative survival for patients diagnosed with female breast and colorectal cancer in 2000-2015 in the SEER-18 areas.
resultsWhen grouping patients with stages I-III, the 5-year metastatic recurrence-free modeled and NPCR-PCOR estimates are very similar being respectively, 90.2 % and 88.6 % for female breast cancer, 74.6 % and 75.3 % for colon cancer, and 68.8 % and 68.5 % for rectum cancer. In general, the 5-year recurrence-free NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates are still similar when controlling by stage. The modeled estimates, however, are not as accurate for recurrence-free survival in years 1-3 from diagnosis.
conclusionsThe alignment between NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates supports their validity and provides robust population-based estimates of 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival for female breast, colon, and rectum cancers. The modeling approach can in principle be extended to other cancer sites to provide provisional population-based estimates of 5-year recurrence free survival.
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