Behavioral and brain reactivity to uncertain stress prospectively predicts binge drinking in youth.

Prior studies show that individuals with alcohol use disorder exhibit exaggerated behavioral and brain reactivity to uncertain threats (U-threat). It is posited this brain-based factor emerges early in life and contributes to the onset and escalation of alcohol problems. However, no study to date has tested this theory using a longitudinal within-subjects design. Ninety-five young adults, ages 17-19, with minimal alcohol exposure and established risk factors for alcohol use disorder participated in this multi-session study with a 1-year tracking period. Startle eyeblink potentiation and brain activation were collected at separate baseline sessions during the well-validated No-Predictable-Unpredictable (NPU) threat-of-shock task designed to probe reactivity to U-threat and predictable threat (P-threat). Participants self-reported their drinking behavior over the past 90 days at baseline and one-year later. We fit a series of multilevel hurdle models to model the binary outcome of whether binge drinking occurred and the continuous outcome of number of binge drinking episodes. Zero-inflated binary submodels revealed that greater baseline startle reactivity, bilateral anterior insula (AIC) reactivity, and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) reactivity to U-threat were associated with increased probability of binge drinking. There were no other associations between reactivity to U- and P-threat and probability of binge drinking and number of binging episodes. These results demonstrate that exaggerated reactivity to U-threat is a brain-based individual difference factor that connotes risk for problem drinking. These findings also add to a growing literature implicating AIC and dACC dysfunction in the pathophysiology of alcohol use disorder.