ArticleScientific reports2023
Malaria, climate variability, and interventions: modelling transmission dynamics.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 113 citations in OpenAlex.
- Over-dispersion in malaria-schistosoma co-infection: insights from a meta-analytical approach and systematic review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Pooled it
- Exploring the Effects of Climate Variability on Diarrheal Diseases, Malaria, and Malnutrition in Children Under Five Years in Revuè Sub-Basin, Manica Province, Mozambique.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Geospatial-based surveillance of malaria risk in Dar es Salaam using a hybrid 3DCNN + LSTM and CA model.International journal of health geographics · 2026Review
- Malaria at the margins: climatic extremes, migration, and urban informal settlement risk in South Africa.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Composition, blood meal sources, and entomological inoculation rates of Anopheles mosquitoes in an urban setting, central Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of climate and control interventions on spatio-temporal malaria dynamics using a stochastic metapopulation model.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Rural-Urban Migration and Low-Transmission Endemicity of Malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Statistical Inference Approach to Uncover Possible Mechanisms.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Comparing three approaches to modelling the effects of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in different climatic regions.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Mapping mosquito diversity in Kenya correlating species distribution with malaria prevalence across varied climatic parameters.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Burden stratification and spatial analysis for malaria chemoprevention in Malawi.MalariaWorld journal · 2026Article
- An assessment of knowledge, practices, and malaria parasitaemia among artisanal gold miners and community members in Mudzi, Zimbabwe.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Climate, Interventions, and Malaria Outcomes in a Warming World: Towards Climate-Smart Malaria Control in Kenya.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Climate Change Favors African Malaria Vector Mosquitoes.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling and prediction of malaria cases in Tanzania mainland (2016-2023): unveiling associations with climate and intervention factors.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- Spatial and temporal variation of malaria incidence in children under 10 years in a pyrethroid-resistant vector area in southern Benin.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Imported malaria in Cabo Verde (2010-2024): Risks to post-elimination stability.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Where environment and malaria intersect: Exploring the spatio-temporal footprints of Plasmodium falciparum in Tanzania.PloS one · 2025Article
- Malaria burden and associated risk factors among malaria suspected patients attending health facilities in Kaffa zone, Southwest Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Forecasting malaria dynamics based on causal relations between control interventions, climatic factors, and disease incidence in western Kenya.Journal of global health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Assessment of the relative impact of climate change on malaria dynamics is a complex problem. Climate is a well-known factor that plays a crucial role in driving malaria outbreaks in epidemic transmission areas. However, its influence in endemic environments with intensive malaria control interventions is not fully understood, mainly due to the scarcity of high-quality, long-term malaria data. The demographic surveillance systems in Africa offer unique platforms for quantifying the relative effects of weather variability on the burden of malaria. Here, using a process-based stochastic transmission model, we show that in the lowlands of malaria endemic western Kenya, variations in climatic factors played a key role in driving malaria incidence during 2008-2019, despite high bed net coverage and use among the population. The model captures some of the main mechanisms of human, parasite, and vector dynamics, and opens the possibility to forecast malaria in endemic regions, taking into account the interaction between future climatic conditions and intervention scenarios.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.