Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37143450›Full record

ArticleJournal of productivity analysis2023

Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models.

Inmaculada C Álvarez, Luis Orea, Alan Wall

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of productivity analysis, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Inmaculada C ÁlvarezDepartment of Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, and Oviedo Efficiency Group, Oviedo, Spain.
Luis OreaDepartment of Economics, University of Oviedo and Oviedo Efficiency Group, Oviedo, Spain.
Alan WallDepartment of Economics, University of Oviedo and Oviedo Efficiency Group, Oviedo, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-5090-9253

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We use a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to model the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic across geographical areas. The proposed models permit reported and undocumented cases to be estimated, which is important as case counts are overwhelmingly believed to be undercounted. The models can be estimated using only epidemic-type data but are flexible enough to permit these reporting rates to vary across geographical cross-section units of observation. We provide an empirical application of our models to Spanish data corresponding to the initial months of the original outbreak of the virus in early 2020. We find remarkable rates of under-reporting that might explain why the Spanish Government took its time to implement strict mitigation strategies. We also provide insights into the effectiveness of the national and regional lockdown measures and the influence of socio-economic factors in the propagation of the virus.

Indexed as

COVID-19Panel dataSIR modelsSpainStochastic frontier analysis

Identifiers

PMID37143450
PMCPMC9975832

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.