Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37143035›Full record

ArticleBMC psychiatry2023

Machine learning-based prediction model for postoperative delirium in non-cardiac surgery.

Dong Yun Lee, Ah Ran Oh, Jungchan Park, Seung-Hwa Lee, Byungjin Choi, Kwangmo Yang, Ha Yeon Kim, Rae Woong Park

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC psychiatry, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
4.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Dong Yun Lee *Department of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, 206, World cup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Korea.
Ah Ran Oh *Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea.
Jungchan Park *Department of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, 206, World cup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Korea. jc83.park@samsung.com.
Seung-Hwa LeeRehabilitation & Prevention Center, Heart Vascular Stroke Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Byungjin ChoiDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, 206, World cup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Korea.
Kwangmo YangDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, 206, World cup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Korea.
Ha Yeon KimDepartment of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea.
Rae Woong Park *Department of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, 206, World cup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Korea. rwpark99@gmail.com.
Ajou University · KRSamsung Medical Center · KRSeoul National University · KR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPostoperative delirium is a common complication that is distressing. This study aimed to demonstrate a prediction model for delirium.

methodsAmong 203,374undergoing non-cardiac surgery between January 2011 and June 2019 at Samsung Medical Center, 2,865 (1.4%) were diagnosed with postoperative delirium. After comparing performances of machine learning algorithms, we chose variables for a prediction model based on an extreme gradient boosting algorithm. Using the top five variables, we generated a prediction model for delirium and conducted an external validation. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox survival analyses were used to analyse the difference of delirium occurrence in patients classified as a prediction model.

resultsThe top five variables selected for the postoperative delirium prediction model were age, operation duration, physical status classification, male sex, and surgical risk. An optimal probability threshold in this model was estimated to be 0.02. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.870 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.855-0.885, and the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.76 and 0.84, respectively. In an external validation, the AUROC was 0.867 (0.845-0.877). In the survival analysis, delirium occurred more frequently in the group of patients predicted as delirium using an internal validation dataset (p < 0.001).

conclusionBased on machine learning techniques, we analyzed a prediction model of delirium in patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery. Screening for delirium based on the prediction model could improve postoperative care. The working model is provided online and is available for further verification among other populations.

trial registrationKCT 0006363.

Indexed as

Emergence DeliriumAlgorithmsArea Under CurveHospitalsHumansMachine LearningMaleDeliriumMachine learningNon-cardiac surgery

Identifiers

PMID37143035
PMCPMC10161528
OpenAlexW4372336826

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.