ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Modelling the pulse population-wide nucleic acid screening in mitigating and stopping COVID-19 outbreaks in China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Combining the dynamic model and deep neural networks to identify the intensity of interventions during COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
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Abstract
backgroundDuring 2021-2022, mainland China experienced multiple times of local COVID-19 outbreaks in several cities, including Yangzhou, Xi'an etc., and the Chinese government persistently adopted the zero-COVID policy in combating with the local outbreaks.
methodsWe develop a mathematical model with pulse population-wide nucleic acid screening, part of the zero-COVID policy, to reveal its role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. We calibrate the model by fitting the COVID-19 epidemic data of the local outbreaks in Yangzhou and Xi'an, China. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of population-wide nucleic acid screening on controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.
resultsWithout the screening, the cumulative number of confirmed cases increases by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] in Yangzhou and Xi'an, respectively. Meanwhile, the screening program helps to shorten the lockdown period for more than one month when we aim at controlling the cases into zero. Considering its role in mitigating the epidemics, we observe a paradox phenomenon of the screening rate in avoiding the runs on medical resource. That is, the screening will aggravate the runs on medical resource when the screening rate is small, while it helps to relieve the runs on medical resource if the screening rate is high enough. We also conclude that the screening has limited effects on mitigating the epidemics if the outbreak is in a high epidemic level or there has already been runs on medical resources. Alternatively, a smaller screening population per time with a higher screening frequency may be a better program to avoid the runs on medical resources.
conclusionsThe population-wide nucleic acid screening strategy plays an important role in quickly controlling and stopping the local outbreaks under the zero-COVID policy. However, it has limited impacts and even increase the potential risk of the runs on medical resource for containing the large scale outbreaks.
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