ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2023
Correlation of viral loads in disease transmission could affect early estimates of the reproduction number.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Why population heterogeneity matters for modelling infectious diseases.Interface focus · 2025Article
- Correlation of viral loads in disease transmission could affect early estimates of the reproduction number.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Early estimates of the transmission properties of a newly emerged pathogen are critical to an effective public health response, and are often based on limited outbreak data. Here, we use simulations to investigate how correlations between the viral load of cases in transmission chains can affect estimates of these fundamental transmission properties. Our computational model simulates a disease transmission mechanism in which the viral load of the infector at the time of transmission influences the infectiousness of the infectee. These correlations in transmission pairs produce a population-level convergence process during which the distributions of initial viral loads in each subsequent generation converge to a steady state. We find that outbreaks arising from index cases with low initial viral loads give rise to early estimates of transmission properties that could be misleading. These findings demonstrate the potential for transmission mechanisms to affect estimates of the transmission properties of newly emerged viruses in ways that could be operationally significant to a public health response.
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Registered trials
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