SynthesisProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.
Open access · greenAbstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph
Synthesis in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
15.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 61 citations in OpenAlex.
- Artificial Light at Night Consistently Impacts Avian Physiology and Behaviour: A Meta-Analysis.Ecology letters · 2026Pooled it
- The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Pooled it
- Pervasive sublethal impacts of heat exposure revealed by telomere dynamics.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2026Article
- Resident and Migratory Falcons' Breeding Phenology and Productivity Respond Differently to Weather and Climate Change Across the Arctic.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Evaluating the ability of a thermal biology-informed reproduction number to explain patterns of West Nile incidence in Europe.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Temperature-Related Changes in Avian Nestling Provisioning: A Global Analysis.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Warming and Change in Ocean Productivity Alter Phenology of an Expanding Loggerhead Population in Cabo Verde.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- Wild Bird Reproduction: Neuroendocrinology, Conservation Biology, and Environmental Threats.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026Review
- Wild Bird Reproduction: Neuroendocrinology, Conservation Biology, and Environmental Threats.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026Review
- Identifying the demographic pathways linking environmental covariates to population dynamics in an avian migrant.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026Article
- Does Seasonal Variation in Agility of Avian Prey Influence Body Size of Breeding Male Cooper's Hawks? And Comments on the Putative Influence of Avivory on Reproductive Output in Cities.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Large reductions in tropical bird abundance attributable to heat extreme intensification.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- The impact of weather conditions on avian breeding performance: insights from a long-term study.Frontiers in zoology · 2025Article
- The Complex Relationship Between High Temperatures and Avian Breeding Success: Insights From a Global Review.Ecology and evolution · 2025Review
- A framework for reproductive outcomes of phenological match-mismatch in migratory breeders tested on a declining species, caribou.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Rural reality contradicts the ethnographic literature-a nationwide survey on folk beliefs and people's affection for the stork in Poland.Journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine · 2024Article
- Avian Haemosporidian Infection in Wildlife Rehabilitation Centres of Portugal: Causes, Consequences, and Genetic Diversity.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Effect of heat stress on the hypothalamic expression profile of water homeostasis-associated genes in low- and high-water efficient chicken lines.Physiological reports · 2024Article
- Factors affecting fledglings survival in urban population of European blackbirds in Szczecin (NW Poland).Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Effects of meteorological conditions on brood care in cooperatively breeding carrion crow and consequences on reproductive success.Frontiers in zoology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
104 authors at 20 institutions in 26 countries.
Lucyna HalupkaOrnithological Station, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-8043-8111
Debora ArltDepartment of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala SE-750 07, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-0874-4250
Jere TolvanenDepartment of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu 90014, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-0250-3176
Alexandre MillonAix Marseille University, University of Avignon, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Méditerranéen Biodiversité & Ecologie (IMBE), Aix-en-Provence 13545, France.ORCID 0000-0002-9475-4123
Pierre BizeSwiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach CH-6204, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-6759-4371
Peter AdamíkDepartment of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Palacky University, Olomouc 771 46, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0003-1566-1234
Pascal AlbertPrivate address, Cormost 10800, France.
Wayne J ArendtUSDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, Sabana Field Research Station, Luquillo 00773, PR.ORCID 0000-0001-8462-4416
Alexander V ArtemyevDepartment of Zoology, Institute of Biology, Karelian Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russia.ORCID 0000-0002-7594-3500
Vittorio BaglioneDepartamento de Biodiversidad y Gestión Ambiental, Universidad de León, León 24071, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-8464-7861
Jerzy BańburaDepartment of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology, University of Łódź, Łódź 90-237, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-7479-3117
Mirosława BańburaDepartment of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology, University of Łódź, Łódź 90-237, Poland.
Emilio Barba"Cavanilles" Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, University of Valencia, Valencia E46080, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-2882-9788
Robert T BarrettDepartment of Natural Sciences, Tromsø University Museum, Tromsø NO-9037, Norway.
Peter H BeckerInstitute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", head office Wilhelmshaven, Wilhelmshaven 26386, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-5323-6648
Eugen BelskiiInstitute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia.ORCID 0000-0002-7570-2555
Mark BoltonCentre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Aberdeen AB10 1YP, UK.
E Keith BowersDepartment of Biological Sciences, Edward J. Meeman Biological Station, and Center for Biodiversity Research, University of Memphis, Memphis TN 38152.ORCID 0000-0003-4488-1463
Joël BriedInstitute of Marine Sciences - OKEANOS, University of the Azores, Horta 9901-862, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0001-7377-4304
Lyanne BrouwerDepartment of Zoology & Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-6728-4851
Monika BukacińskaDepartment of Environmental Conservation, Institute of Biological Sciences, Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University of Warsaw, Warsaw 01-938, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-4526-3141
Dariusz BukacińskiDepartment of Environmental Conservation, Institute of Biological Sciences, Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University of Warsaw, Warsaw 01-938, Poland.ORCID 0000-0003-0163-2950
Lesley BulluckDepartment of Biology and Center for Environmental Studies, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284.
Kate F CarstensFitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0001-5608-8118
Inês CatryResearch Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO) / Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology (InBIO), Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto, Vairăo 4485-601, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-5593-5001
Motti CharterShamir Research Institute and Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa 3498838, Israel.ORCID 0000-0003-3861-6356
Anna ChernomoretsLaboratory of Ornithology, Scientific and Practical Center for Biological Resources of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk 220072, Belarus.ORCID 0000-0002-3073-5820
Rita CovasFitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0001-7130-144X
Monika CzuchraDepartment of Behavioural Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-9090-9036
Donald C DearbornBiology Department, Bates College, Lewiston, ME 04240.ORCID 0000-0003-2464-9368
Florentino de LopeDepartment of Anatomy, Cellular Biology and Zoology, University of Extremadura, Badajoz E-506071, Spain.
Adrián S Di GiacomoLaboratorio de Biología de la Conservación, Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas (CONICET), Corrientes 3400, Argentina.
Valery C DombrovskiLaboratory of Molecular Zoology, National Academy of Sciences, Minsk 220072, Belarus.ORCID 0000-0003-1954-5134
Hugh DrummondDepartamento de Ecología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0002-7456-8470
Michael J DunnBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4633-5466
Tapio EevaDepartment of Biology, University of Turku, Turku 20014, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-0395-1536
Louise M EmmersonAustralian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, 7050 Kingston TAS, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7336-0961
Yngve EspmarkDepartment of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
Juan A FargalloDepartment of Evolutionary Ecology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid 28006, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-4090-9000
Sergey I GashkovDepartament of Museum Technologies, Zoology Museum, Tomsk State University, Tomsk 634050, Russia.ORCID 0000-0001-9620-5147
Elena Yu GolubovaInstitute of Biological Problems of the North, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia.
Michael GriesserDepartment of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz 78457, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2220-2637
Michael P HarrisUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9559-5830
Jeffrey P HooverIllinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61820.ORCID 0000-0003-0394-3971
Zuzanna JagiełłoInstitute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-625, Poland.ORCID 0000-0003-1606-2612
Patrik KarellBioeconomy Research Team, Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raseborg FI-10600, Finland.ORCID 0000-0003-0297-125X
Janusz KloskowskiInstitute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-625, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-0525-2421
Walter D KoenigHastings Reservation, University of California Berkeley, Carmel Valley, CA 93924.ORCID 0000-0001-6207-1427
Heikki KolunenPrivate address, FI-14870 Tuulos, Finland.
Małgorzata Korczak-AbshireInstitute of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw 02-106, Poland.ORCID 0000-0001-7695-0588
Erkki KorpimäkiDepartment of Biology, University of Turku, Turku 20014, Finland.ORCID 0000-0001-7596-1955
Indrikis KramsDepartment of Zoology and Animal Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia, Riga 1004, Latvia.ORCID 0000-0001-7150-4108
Miloš KristDepartment of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Palacky University, Olomouc 771 46, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0002-6183-686X
Sonja C KrügerConservation Services Division, Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife, Cascades 3202, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-5761-0139
Boris D KuranovDepartment of Vertebrate Zoology and Ecology, Tomsk State University, Tomsk 634050, Russia.
Xavier LambinSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4643-2653
Michael P LombardoBiology Department, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI 49401-9403.ORCID 0000-0001-6322-494X
Andrey LyakhovInstitute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia.
Alfonso MarzalDepartment of Anatomy, Cellular Biology and Zoology, University of Extremadura, Badajoz E-506071, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-5872-1060
Anders P MøllerEcologie Systématique Evolution, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France.
Verónica C NevesInstitute of Marine Sciences - OKEANOS, University of the Azores, Horta 9901-862, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-6826-4542
Jan Tøttrup NielsenPrivate address, 9870 Sindal, Denmark.
Alexander NumerovDepartment of Zoology and Parasitology, Voronezh State University, Voronezh 394006, Russia.ORCID 0000-0002-2714-953X
Beata OrłowskaOrnithological Station, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland.
Daniel OroTheoretical and Computation Ecology Lab, Centre d'Estudis Acançats de Blanes (CEAB), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Blanes 17300, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-4782-3007
Markus ÖstEnvironmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Turku 20500, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-2205-1437
Richard A PhillipsBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Hannu PietiäinenDepartment of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland.
Vicente PoloDepartment of Biology and Geology, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles 28933, Spain.
Jiří PorkertHradec Králové 500 02, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0002-1558-1245
Jaime PottiEstación Biológica de Dońana - CSIC, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Seville 41092, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-2284-0022
Hannu PöysäDepartment of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu FI-80101, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-1585-2375
Thierry PrintempsGroupe d'Etudes et de Protection des Busards (GepB), Beurville 52110, France.
Jouke PropArctic Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen 9718CW, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-9504-9007
Petra QuillfeldtDepartment of Animal Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University, Giessen 35392, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4450-8688
Jaime A RamosDepartment of Life Sciences, Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre (MARE), University of Coimbra, Coimbra 3000-456, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0002-9533-987X
Pierre-Alain RavussinPrivate address, CH-1446 Baulmes, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-9033-739X
Robert N RosenfieldDepartment of Biology, University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Stevens Point, WI 54481.ORCID 0000-0002-1601-9246
Alexandre RoulinDepartment of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne CH-1015, Switzerland.
Dustin R RubensteinDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.ORCID 0000-0002-4999-3723
Irina E SamusenkoLaboratory of Ornithology, Scientific and Practical Center for Biological Resources of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk 220072, Belarus.ORCID 0000-0001-9834-8109
Denis A SaundersWeetangera, Australian Capital Territory 2614, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5959-573X
Michael SchaubSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2745-0557
Juan C SenarDepartament de Vertebrats, Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona, Barcelona 08003, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-9955-3892
Fabrizio SergioEstación Biológica de Dońana - CSIC, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Seville 41092, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-8024-1773
Tapio SolonenLuontotutkimus Solonen Oy, Helsinki FI-00960, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-4817-3942
Diana V SolovyevaInstitute of Biological Problems of the North, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia.ORCID 0000-0001-5076-0305
Janusz StępniewskiPanurus Monitoringi Inwentaryzacje Opinie Przyrodnicze, Osieczna 64-113, Poland.ORCID 0000-0001-9759-5204
Paul M ThompsonSchool of Biological Sciences, Lighthouse Field Station, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6195-3284
Marcin TobolkaInstitute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-625, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-4989-1524
János TörökDepartment of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, Behavioural Ecology Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest H-1117, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0002-4275-2396
Martijn van de PolDepartment of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen 6708PB, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-4102-4079
Louis VernooijDepartment of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen 6708PB, the Netherlands.
Marcel E VisserDepartment of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen 6708PB, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-1456-1939
David F WestneatDepartment of Biology, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0225.ORCID 0000-0001-5163-8096
Nathaniel T WheelwrightDepartment of Biology, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME 04011.ORCID 0000-0003-2578-9514
Jarosław WiącekDepartment of Zoology and Nature Protection, Institute of Biological Sciences, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, Lublin 20-033, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-9566-8593
Karen L WiebeDepartment of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon S7N 5E2, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-3148-8278
Andrew G WoodBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Andrzej WuczyńskiInstitute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków 31-120, Poland.ORCID 0000-0001-9577-3855
Dariusz WysockiDepartment of Vertebrate Zoology and Anthropology, Szczecin University, Szczecin 71-415, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-1064-1579
Markéta ZárybnickáDepartment of Ecology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 16521, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0001-5883-0988
Antoni MargalidaInstitute for Game and Wildlife Research, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real E- 13005, Spain.
Konrad HalupkaDepartment of Behavioural Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław 50-335, Poland.ORCID 0000-0001-5139-1134
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas · ESUniversity of Wrocław · PLBritish Antarctic Survey · GBNational Academy of Sciences of Belarus · BYNetherlands Institute of Ecology · NLCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique · FRInstitute of Plant and Animal Ecology · RUNational Research Tomsk State University · RUPalacký University Olomouc · CZRussian Academy of Sciences · RUUniversidad de Extremadura · ESUniversidade dos Açores · PTUniversity of Aberdeen · GBUniversity of Cape Town · ZAUniversity of Life Sciences in Poznań · PLUniversity of Łódź · PLUniversity of Turku · FIUniversity of Warsaw · PLÅbo Akademi University · FIACT Government
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.
Indexed as
Climate ChangeLife History TraitsAnimalsChickensFemaleReproductionSeasonsbirdsclimate changemeta-analysisoffspring production
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