Establishment and Expansion Scenario of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) in Central Brazil.

Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae), also known as spotted wing drosophila (SWD), is an important pest that damages various wild and cultivated soft fruits worldwide, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. In Brazil, it occurs mainly in the subtropical climates of the southern and southeastern regions. However, SWD has also been sporadically found in the central region of the country in the natural vegetation of the tropical Brazilian Savanna. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of SWD at the northern limit of its range in South America - the central region of Brazil - by monitoring an established drosophilid community in an orchard located in the Brazilian Federal District. We also investigated the current geographical distribution of this pest in Brazil and its potential geographical distribution using species distribution models under two different future shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (2040 and 2060, optimist and pessimist). Twenty drosophilid species were detected among the 6,396 captured specimens, most of which are exotic in the Neotropical region. The fly community greatly fluctuated throughout the year, and the highest abundance of SWD (3.5% relative abundance and 1.38 flies/trap/day) was recorded in April during the rainy season. Potential distribution models indicate that suitable areas for SWD spread will decrease in the south and southeast but increase in the central region of Brazil. We recommend continuous SWD monitoring and improving bioclimatic forecast models for mitigating damage to local fruit production.