Cost-effectiveness of Follow-up CT for Incidental Ascending Aortic Dilatation.

Purpose: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CT follow-up strategies for incidental aortic dilatation. Materials and Methods: In this cost-effectiveness analysis, a simulation model was developed with 1 000 000 adult patients aged 55-75 years with incidentally detected dilated aortas measuring 40-50 mm. Follow-up CT strategies were evaluated for various patient age- and aortic size-based cutoffs. Follow-up frequency ranged from 1 to 3 years, as well as a single follow-up CT examination at 1 year. Patient survival was determined by risk of aortic dissection or rupture and surgical- and age-based mortality. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated for each strategy within the simulated cohort. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed by varying model parameters. Results: The cost-effective strategy with the highest QALYs under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY was follow-up CT for patients younger than 60 years with aortas measuring at least 40 mm in diameter every 3 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $62 511; 95% CI: $52 168, $77 739). With this strategy, follow-up imaging was needed for only 17% of dilated aortas in the cohort. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the cost-effective strategies at $100 000 per QALY threshold included the following: no follow-up for patients with aortas smaller than 50 mm (39% of simulations), follow-up every 3 years for patients younger than 55 years with aortas measuring at least 45 mm (21%), and follow-up every 3 years for patients older than 65 years with aortas measuring at least 40 mm (14%). Conclusion: Follow-up CT for an incidentally detected dilated ascending aorta smaller than 50 mm is likely not cost-effective in patients older than 60-65 years.