Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37118594›Full record

ArticleNature food2022

Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection.

Lili Xia, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Cheryl S Harrison, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Isabelle Weindl, Jonas Jägermeyr, Charles G Bardeen, Owen B Toon, Ryan Heneghan

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature food, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 97 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
97citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

97 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Prostate cancer and prostatic diseases · 2026
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  8. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2025
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  9. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.European journal of nuclear medicine and molecular imaging · 2025
    Article
  10. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2025
    Article
  11. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention · 2025
    Article
  12. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us†.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2025
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  15. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Internal and emergency medicine · 2025
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  16. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992) · 2025
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  17. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Sexually transmitted infections · 2025
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  18. Article
  19. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry · 2025
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  20. Ending nuclear weapons, before they end us.Journal of neurointerventional surgery · 2025
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37 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lili XiaDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA. lilixia@envsci.rutgers.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-7821-9756
Alan RobockDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6319-5656
Kim ScherrerInstitut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-6198-5745
Cheryl S HarrisonDepartment of Ocean and Coastal Science, Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.
Benjamin Leon BodirskyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8242-6712
Isabelle WeindlPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7651-6930
Jonas JägermeyrPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8368-0018
Charles G BardeenNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Owen B ToonLaboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
Ryan HeneghanSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia-underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Identifiers

PMID37118594

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.