Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37114968›Full record

ArticleJournal of global health2023

Changes in all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality before and after the Omicron outbreak of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.

Ka Chun Chong, Paul Ks Chan, Chi Tim Hung, Carlos Kh Wong, Xi Xiong, Yuchen Wei, Shi Zhao, Zihao Guo, Huwen Wang, Carrie Hk Yam and 7 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Ka Chun ChongSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Paul Ks ChanDepartment of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Chi Tim HungSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Carlos Kh WongCentre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Xi XiongCentre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Yuchen WeiSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Shi ZhaoSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Zihao GuoSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Huwen WangSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Carrie Hk YamSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Tsz Yu ChowSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Conglu LiSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Xiaoting JiangSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Shuk Yu LeungDepartment of Paediatrics, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong, China.
Ka Li KwokDepartment of Paediatrics, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong, China.
Eng Kiong YeohSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Kehang LiSchool of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: While coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) deaths were generally underestimated in many countries, Hong Kong may show a different trend of excess mortality due to stringent measures, especially for deaths related to respiratory diseases. Nevertheless, the Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong evolved into a territory-wide transmission, similar to other settings such as Singapore, South Korea, and recently, mainland China. We hypothesized that the excess mortality would differ substantially before and after the Omicron outbreak. Methods: We conducted a time-series analysis of daily deaths stratified by age, reported causes, and epidemic wave. We determined the excess mortality from the difference between observed and expected mortality from 23 January 2020 to 1 June 2022 by fitting mortality data from 2013 to 2019. Results: During the early phase of the pandemic, the estimated excess mortality was -19.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) = -29.09, -10.75) and -115.57 (95% CI = -161.34, -69.79) per 100 000 population overall and for the elderly, respectively. However, the overall excess mortality rate was 234.08 (95% CI = 224.66, 243.50) per 100 000 population overall and as high as 928.09 (95% CI = 885.14, 971.04) per 100 000 population for the elderly during the Omicron epidemic. We generally observed negative excess mortality rates of non-COVID-19 respiratory diseases before and after the Omicron outbreak. In contrast, increases in excess mortality were generally reported in non-respiratory diseases after the Omicron outbreak. Conclusions: Our results highlighted the averted mortality before 2022 among the elderly and patients with non-COVID-19 respiratory diseases, due to indirect benefits from stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions. The high excess mortality during the Omicron epidemic demonstrated a significant impact from the surge of COVID-19 infections in a SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive population, particularly evident in the elderly group.

Indexed as

COVID-19Respiration DisordersAgedDisease OutbreaksHong KongHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID37114968
PMCPMC10143112

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.