ArticleBiology2023
COVID-19 in Italy: Is the Mortality Analysis a Way to Estimate How the Epidemic Lasts?
Article in Biology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Mystery of CertainMicroorganisms · 2025Review
- An Epidemiological Analysis for Assessing and Evaluating COVID-19 Based on Data Analytics in Latin American Countries.Biology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
When an epidemic breaks out, many health, economic, social, and political problems arise that require a prompt and effective solution. It would be useful to obtain all information about the virus, including epidemiological ones, as soon as possible. In a previous study of our group, the analysis of the positive-alive was proposed to estimate the epidemic duration. It was stated that every epidemic ends when the number of positive-alive (=infected-healed-dead) glides toward zero. In fact, if with the contagion everyone can enter the epidemic phenomenon, only by healing or dying can they get out of it. In this work, a different biomathematical model is proposed. A necessary condition for the epidemic to be resolved is that the mortality reaches the asymptotic value, from there, remains stable. At that time, the number of positive-alive must also be close to zero. This model seems to allow us to interpret the entire development of the epidemic and highlight its phases. It is also more appropriate than the previous one, especially when the spread of the infection is so rapid that the increase in live positives is staggering.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.