ArticleJournal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract2023
Early Postoperative Vital Signs Predict Subsequent 90-Day Mortality After Pancreaticoduodenectomy.
Article in Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundWhile complication rates after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) have improved in recent decades, surgical-related death remains a possibility. Postoperative vital signs offer an untapped opportunity to identify predictors of 90-day mortality.
methodsWe performed a retrospective chart review interrogating postoperative day (POD 0-7) vital sign measurements from patients undergoing a PD at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA (2009-2014). Five specific vital signs were examined as predictors of mortality: temperature, heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure. Statistical analyses and logic algorithms were employed to rank vital sign parameters, with cut-points, to identify those associated with the highest risk of mortality and the most clinical relevance.
resultsIn our cohort, 11/750 patients (1.5%) died within 30 days of surgery, and 21/750 patients (2.8%) died within 90 days of surgery. Vital sign perturbations associated with the highest risk of mortality included mean SBP < 95 mmHg on POD 7 (odds ratio 51.46) and the mean temperature < 96.9℉ on POD 3 (odds ratio 22.63) with specificities exceeding 99%. The most clinically relevant predictor (i.e., a higher sensitivity) was DBP < 60.5 mmHg on POD 7 (odds ratio 12.45, sensitivity of 75%). These predictors remained statistically significant in a multivariable model.
conclusionsVital signs can be more effectively utilized to predict 90-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Values beyond an informative threshold can potentially identify patients for more intensive monitoring with a goal of rescuing patients and preventing death.
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